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The Effects of Decision Making on Futures Price Volatility

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  • David A. Hennessy
  • Thomas I. Wahl

Abstract

Existing literature on commodity futures price volatility emphasizes time to expiration and the resolution of uncertainty. In this paper we stress the supply and demand inflexibilities arising from decision making. A decision made on the supply (demand) side makes future supply (demand) responses less elastic. Therefore, a shock arising after a decision is made is more effective in changing the futures price than a shock before the decision is made. The results support the time-to-maturity hypothesis, but do not conflict with the state variable hypotheses of futures price volatility. Evidence supporting the impacts of inflexibilities are presented for corn, soybean, and wheat contracts. Copyright 1996, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • David A. Hennessy & Thomas I. Wahl, 1996. "The Effects of Decision Making on Futures Price Volatility," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 591-603.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:78:y:1996:i:3:p:591-603
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    Cited by:

    1. Calum G. Turvey, 2010. "Biography," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 70(1), pages 5-20, May.
    2. Matthew Stuart & Cindy Yu & David A. Hennessy, 2023. "The Impact of Stocks on Correlations of Crop Yields and Prices and on Revenue Insurance Premiums using Semiparametric Quantile Regression," Papers 2308.11805, arXiv.org.
    3. Karali, Berna, 2012. "Do USDA Announcements Affect Comovements Across Commodity Futures Returns?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Goodwin, Barry K. & Roberts, Matthew C. & Coble, Keith H., 2000. "Measurement Of Price Risk In Revenue Insurance: Implications Of Distributional Assumptions," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(1), pages 1-20, July.
    5. repec:ags:jrapmc:122315 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Berna Karali & Jeffrey H. Dorfman & Walter N. Thurman, 2010. "Delivery horizon and grain market volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(9), pages 846-873, September.
    7. Nanying Wang & Jack E. Houston, 2016. "The Co-Movement between Non-GM and GM Soybean Prices in China: Evidence from Dalian Futures Market (2004-2014)," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 37-47, November.
    8. Wang, Nanying & Houston, Jack, 2015. "The Comovement between Non-GM and GM Soybean Price in China: Evidence from Dalian Futures Market," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196775, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    9. Wang, Nanying & Houston, Jack E., 2015. "The Co-movement between Non-GM and GM Soybean Price in China: Evidence from China Futures Market," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211914, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. R. Xie & O. Isengildina-Massa & G. P. Dwyer & J. L. Sharp, 2016. "The impact of public and semi-public information on cotton futures market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(36), pages 3416-3431, August.
    11. Nakamura, Masao & Nakashima, Tomoaki & Niimura, Takahide, 2006. "Electricity markets volatility: estimates, regularities and risk management applications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(14), pages 1736-1749, September.
    12. Calum G. Turvey & Jeffrey R. Stokes, 2008. "Market Structure and the Value of Agricultural Contingent Claims," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 56(1), pages 79-94, March.
    13. Madarassy Akin, Rita, 2003. "Maturity Effects in Futures Markets: Evidence from Eleven Financial Futures Markets," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt1n04g31b, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    14. Madarassy Akin, Rita, 2003. "Maturity Effects in Futures Markets: Evidence from Eleven Financial Futures Markets," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1n04g31b, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    15. Tomek, William G. & Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa, 2000. "Risk Management In Agricultural Markets: A Survey," 2000 Producer Marketing and Risk Management Conference, January 13-14, Orlando, FL 19580, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Aliaga Lordemann, Javier & Mora-García, Claudio & Mulder, Nanno, 2021. "Speculation and price volatility in the coffee market," Documentos de Proyectos 46923, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

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