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The Performance of State Tax Portfolios During and After the Great Recession

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  • Nathan Seegert

Abstract

State tax revenues continue, since the Great Recession, to experience elevated volatility relative to previous decades. The elevated tax revenue volatility is due to both economic uncertainty and the riskiness of the tax portfolios state governments are holding. Since the Great Recession, 18 states have increased the riskiness of their tax portfolio. However, many of these states were constrained to accept additional volatility in exchange for additional tax revenues. The mean-volatility constraint state governments face depends on numerous tax system characteristics. For example, states that tax groceries under the sales tax base and have less progressive income taxes are able to increase revenues and accept less volatility than states that exempt groceries from their sales tax base and have a progressive income tax.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan Seegert, 2015. "The Performance of State Tax Portfolios During and After the Great Recession," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 68(4), pages 901-918, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:68:y:2015:i:4:p:901-918
    DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2015.4.01
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.17310/ntj.2015.4.01
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    Cited by:

    1. Wenchi Wei & Dwight V. Denison, 2019. "State Rainy Day Funds and Government General Fund Expenditures: Revisiting the Stabilization Effect," Public Finance Review, , vol. 47(3), pages 465-492, May.
    2. Gjerde, Kathy Paulson & Prescott, Peter & Rice, Jennifer, 2019. "The Impact of State Fiscal Policy on States' Resilience Entering the Great Recession," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 49(1), January.
    3. David Cashin & Jamie Lenney & Byron Lutz & William Peterman, 2018. "Fiscal policy and aggregate demand in the USA before, during, and following the Great Recession," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(6), pages 1519-1558, December.
    4. Duquette, Nicolas J., 2018. "Inequality and philanthropy: High-income giving in the United States 1917–2012," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 25-41.
    5. Phil Dean & Maclean Gaulin & Nathan Seegert & Mu-Jeung Yang, 2023. "The COVID-19 state sales tax windfall," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(5), pages 1408-1434, October.

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