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Truth or Dare? Detecting Systematic Manipulation of COVID-19 Statistics

Author

Listed:
  • Adiguzel, Fatih Serkant
  • Cansunar, Asli
  • Corekcioglu, Gozde

Abstract

Which countries manipulate COVID-19 statistics? Does the party ideology of local governors affect the probability of data manipulation at subnational levels? How does democratic quality affect statistical transparency during the pandemic? In this article, we apply election fraud detection methods — various digit-based tests that exploit human biases in generating random numbers — to the daily announced official numbers of new and cumulative coronavirus infections. First, we use digit-based tests to identify countries that likely manipulated their pandemic statistics. We then move on to examine the empirical relationship between democratic quality and data transparency. We find suggestive evidence that data manipulation occurred in China, the United States, Russia, and Turkey. Second, we show that non-democracies, as well as countries without free and fair elections, are more likely to release data that display signs of statistical malpractice.

Suggested Citation

  • Adiguzel, Fatih Serkant & Cansunar, Asli & Corekcioglu, Gozde, 2020. "Truth or Dare? Detecting Systematic Manipulation of COVID-19 Statistics," Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy, now publishers, vol. 1(4), pages 543-557, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:now:jnlpip:113.00000021
    DOI: 10.1561/112.00000021
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    Cited by:

    1. Mustafa Kaba & Murat Koyuncu & Sebastian O. Schneider & Matthias Sutter, 2023. "Social Norms, Political Polarization, and Vaccination Attitudes: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Turkey," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2023_08, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    2. Nadia Yusuf & Lamia Saud Shesha, 2021. "Economic Role of Population Density during Pandemics—A Comparative Analysis of Saudi Arabia and China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-18, April.

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