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Causas do desmatamento da Amazônia: uma aplicação do teste de causalidade de Granger acerca das principais fontes de desmatamento nos municípios da Amazônia Legal brasileira [Causes of deforestation in the Amazon]


  • Marcelo Bentes Diniz


  • José Nilo de Oliveira Junior


  • Nicolino Trompieri Neto


  • Márcia Jucá Teixeira Diniz



Many are the factors indicated by the pertinent literature concerning the causes of deforestation in Brazilian Legal Amazon. From endogenous aspects as the edafo-climatic conditions to aspects related to anthropic action, like the population movements, urban growth, and especially, the independent or induced actions of the different public and private economic agents who have acted in the region, historically configuring the processes of occupation of the land and economic exploitation of the Amazonian region. The objective of this article is to perform a causality test, in the Granger sense, in the main variables suggested as important that explain the deforestation of the Legal Amazon, in the period from 1997 to 2006. The methodology to be used is based on dynamic models for the panel data, developed by Holtz-Eakin et al. (1988) and Arellano-Bond (1991) who developed a causality test based on the seminal article of Granger (1969). Among the main results found is the empirical evidence that there is a bidirectional causality between deforestation and the areas of permanent and temporary cultures, as well as the size of the cattle herd.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Bentes Diniz & José Nilo de Oliveira Junior & Nicolino Trompieri Neto & Márcia Jucá Teixeira Diniz, 2009. "Causas do desmatamento da Amazônia: uma aplicação do teste de causalidade de Granger acerca das principais fontes de desmatamento nos municípios da Amazônia Legal brasileira [Causes of deforestation i," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 19(1), pages 121-151, January-A.
  • Handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:19:y:2009:i:1:p:121-151

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    3. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    4. Gabriel Palma, 2000. "The Magical Realism of Brazilian Economics: How to Create a Financial Crisis by Trying to Avoid One," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 2000-16, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    5. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    6. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Faria, Weslem Rodrigues & Almeida, Alexandre Nunes, 2016. "Relationship between openness to trade and deforestation: Empirical evidence from the Brazilian Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 85-97.
    2. Silva, Felipe & Fulginiti, Lilyan & Perrin, Richard, 2016. "Trade-off between amazon forest and agriculture in Brazil – shadow price and their substitution estimative for 2006," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235800, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Weslem Faria & Alexandre Almeida, 2011. "Agricultural Expansion, Openness to Trade and Deforestation at the Brazilian Amazon: A Spatial Econometric Analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1013, European Regional Science Association.
    4. Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid & Ryan Goodrich, 2016. "Comparing the trends and strength of determinants to deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon in consideration of biofuel policies in Brazil and the United States," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 16-12, Instituto de Economía - IECON.

    More about this item


    Amazon; deforestation; causality;

    JEL classification:

    • C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry


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