Family Policy And Demographic Effects: The Case Of Germany

In the last decade a remarkable modernisation of German family policy has been initiated. In the meantime the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has remained persistently low. Some OECD country comparisons highlight the impact of policy measures on fertility levels, but this thesis is challenged by micro-level analyses. Regardless, the causal mechanisms, the institutional setting and the time lag of possible effects still remain under investigated. This paper outlines recent changes in German family policy with a special focus on institutional characteristics and regional heterogeneity. The findings reveal contradictions between the institutional settings of German family policy – characterised by horizontally and vertically split competences – and the bounded rationality characterising fertility decisions. The recent expansion of childcare provision and a new parental leave policy stand in contrast to relics of the past, such as half-day schools and the male-breadwinner oriented tax system. This paper underlines the role of the institutional context, the legitimation of family policies and the interaction of different policy measures. Furthermore, it highlights the process character of changes resulting in remarkable time lags between policies and effects. As such, studies on the impact of family policy are insufficient if they merely focus on short-term effects or a limited set of policy measures, and the unvarying TFR in Germany does not necessarily contradict the impact thesis. Apart from that, age-specific fertility rates show a dynamic recuperation process. Both the time-lag thesis and the broader policy context have implications for future research on the nexus of family policy and fertility.