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The physics of dissent and the effects of movement momentum

Author

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  • Erica Chenoweth

    (Harvard University)

  • Margherita Belgioioso

    (Brunel University London)

Abstract

How do ‘people power’ movements succeed when modest proportions of the population participate? Here we propose that the effects of social movements increase as they gain momentum. We approximate a simple law drawn from physics: momentum equals mass times velocity (p = mv). We propose that the momentum of dissent is a product of participation (mass) and the number of protest events in a week (velocity). We test this simple physical proposition against panel data on the potential effects of movement momentum on irregular leader exit in African countries between 1990 and 2014, using a variety of estimation techniques. Our findings show that social movements potentially compensate for relatively modest popular support by concentrating their activities in time, thus increasing their disruptive capacity. Notably, these findings also provide a straightforward way for dissidents to easily quantify their coercive potential by assessing their participation rates and increased concentration of their activities over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Erica Chenoweth & Margherita Belgioioso, 2019. "The physics of dissent and the effects of movement momentum," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 3(10), pages 1088-1095, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:3:y:2019:i:10:d:10.1038_s41562-019-0665-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41562-019-0665-8
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kimberly Turner, 2023. "A win or a flop? Measuring mass protest successfulness in authoritarian settings," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(1), pages 107-123, January.
    2. Kikuta,Kyosuke, 2022. "Rainy Friday: religious participation and protests," IDE Discussion Papers 859, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    3. Sirianne Dahlum, 2023. "Joining forces: Social coalitions and democratic revolutions," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(1), pages 42-57, January.
    4. Ilker Kalin & Marie Olson Lounsbery & Frederic Pearson, 2022. "Major power politics and non-violent resistance movements," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(3), pages 241-265, May.
    5. Kikuta,Kyosuke & Hanayama,Manaho, 2023. "Does the Nobel Peace Prize Improve Women’s Rights? Prize and Praise in International Relations," IDE Discussion Papers 903, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    6. Kikuta,Kyosuke & Uesugi.Mamoru, 2022. "Do politically irrelevant events cause conflict? the cross-continental effects of European professional football on protests in Africa," IDE Discussion Papers 866, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    7. Kikuta, Kyosuke & Uesugi, Mamoru, 2023. "Do Politically Irrelevant Events Cause Conflict? The Cross-continental Effects of European Professional Football on Protests in Africa," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 179-216, January.

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