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Effects of individual variation and seasonal vaccination on disease risks

Author

Listed:
  • William S. Hart

    (University of Oxford)

  • Jina Amin

    (University of Oxford)

  • Hyeongki Park

    (Pusan National University
    Nagoya University)

  • Kosaku Kitagawa

    (Nagoya University)

  • Yong Dam Jeong

    (Nagoya University
    Pusan National University)

  • Alexander R. Kaye

    (University of Warwick
    University of Warwick)

  • Shingo Iwami

    (Nagoya University
    Kyushu University
    Kyoto University
    RIKEN)

  • Robin N. Thompson

    (University of Oxford)

Abstract

Estimates of the risk of a large outbreak resulting from pathogen introduction into a population are valuable for planning interventions. Two key factors affecting outbreak risks are variation in transmission between individuals (e.g., superspreading individuals) and change over time (e.g., through seasonality or changing population immunity due to vaccination). Here, we develop an outbreak risk estimation framework that accounts for both features simultaneously. To demonstrate the real-world application of our framework, we consider the design of annual COVID-19 booster vaccination campaigns, using a multi-scale approach incorporating an individual-level model of vaccine-induced antibody dynamics. Near the start of annual vaccine distribution, when population immunity is low, a high outbreak risk is possible; this can be mitigated by distributing vaccines over a longer period. We show that longer distribution periods are particularly beneficial if vaccine coverage and/or effectiveness is high, and if seasonality in transmission is limited.

Suggested Citation

  • William S. Hart & Jina Amin & Hyeongki Park & Kosaku Kitagawa & Yong Dam Jeong & Alexander R. Kaye & Shingo Iwami & Robin N. Thompson, 2025. "Effects of individual variation and seasonal vaccination on disease risks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-63375-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-63375-5
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