IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v16y2025i1d10.1038_s41467-025-57501-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hot season gets hotter due to rainfall delay over tropical land in a warming climate

Author

Listed:
  • Fengfei Song

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Hongqiang Dong

    (Ocean University of China
    Ocean University of China
    Ocean University of China)

  • Lixin Wu

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • L. Ruby Leung

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Jian Lu

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Lu Dong

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Peili Wu

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Tianjun Zhou

    (Chinese Academy of Science
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Tropical land generally experiences the hottest period (spring) in a year just before the onset of wet season. Previous studies suggested that in a warming climate, the wet season would come later, but its origin is debated and its impact on temperature remains unknown. Here, we find that the warming of hot season would be amplified under global warming, and refer to it as “hot-season-gets-hotter” phenomenon. The amplified hot season warming is closely tied to the amplified warming of hot temperature percentiles. The hot-season-gets-hotter phenomenon is mainly due to the rainfall delay and most evident in the Amazon, where spring is warming by almost 1 K more than the annual mean and the 99th percentile temperatures are warming ~30% more than the mean by the end of 21st century in a high emission scenario. Comparing experiments with and without land-atmosphere coupling, it is further found that the rainfall delay is initially driven by the enhanced effective atmospheric heat capacity and then substantially amplified by positive soil moisture-atmosphere feedback. In the satellite period, observations consistently show that the hot-season-gets-hotter phenomenon has already emerged along with the rainfall delay in the Amazon. Intensified hot and dry spring climate can enhance risks of drought, heatwaves and wildfires, threatening the Amazon forest and habitats in the tropics.

Suggested Citation

  • Fengfei Song & Hongqiang Dong & Lixin Wu & L. Ruby Leung & Jian Lu & Lu Dong & Peili Wu & Tianjun Zhou, 2025. "Hot season gets hotter due to rainfall delay over tropical land in a warming climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-57501-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-57501-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-57501-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-025-57501-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel J. Kooperman & Yang Chen & Forrest M. Hoffman & Charles D. Koven & Keith Lindsay & Michael S. Pritchard & Abigail L. S. Swann & James T. Randerson, 2018. "Forest response to rising CO2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(5), pages 434-440, May.
    2. Dim Coumou & Alexander Robinson & Stefan Rahmstorf, 2013. "Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 771-782, June.
    3. Anji Seth & Sara Rauscher & Maisa Rojas & Alessandra Giannini & Suzana Camargo, 2011. "Enhanced spring convective barrier for monsoons in a warmer world?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(2), pages 403-414, January.
    4. Liang Qiao & Zhiyan Zuo & Renhe Zhang & Shilong Piao & Dong Xiao & Kaiwen Zhang, 2023. "Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling accelerates global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Fengfei Song & L. Ruby Leung & Jian Lu & Lu Dong, 2018. "Seasonally dependent responses of subtropical highs and tropical rainfall to anthropogenic warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(9), pages 787-792, September.
    6. Soledad Collazo & Mariana Barrucand & Matilde Rusticucci, 2023. "Hot and dry compound events in South America: present climate and future projections, and their association with the Pacific Ocean," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 299-323, October.
    7. Fengfei Song & L. Ruby Leung & Jian Lu & Lu Dong & Wenyu Zhou & Bryce Harrop & Yun Qian, 2021. "Emergence of seasonal delay of tropical rainfall during 1979–2019," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(7), pages 605-612, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gan Zhang, 2023. "Warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces tropical cyclone formation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. David Hidalgo García, 2023. "Evaluation and Analysis of the Effectiveness of the Main Mitigation Measures against Surface Urban Heat Islands in Different Local Climate Zones through Remote Sensing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
    3. Yuanfang Chai & Yao Yue & Louise J. Slater & Jiabo Yin & Alistair G. L. Borthwick & Tiexi Chen & Guojie Wang, 2022. "Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Wang, Linyuan & Zhao, Lin & Mao, Guozhu & Zuo, Jian & Du, Huibin, 2017. "Way to accomplish low carbon development transformation: A bibliometric analysis during 1995–2014," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 57-69.
    5. Aashis Joshi & Emile Chappin & Neelke Doorn, 2021. "Does Distributive Justice Improve Welfare Outcomes in Climate Adaptation? An Exploration Using an Agent-Based Model of a Stylized Social–Environmental System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-23, November.
    6. Haoshan Wei & Yongqiang Zhang & Qi Huang & Francis H. S. Chiew & Jinkai Luan & Jun Xia & Changming Liu, 2024. "Direct vegetation response to recent CO2 rise shows limited effect on global streamflow," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    7. Elizabeth G. Hanna & Peter W. Tait, 2015. "Limitations to Thermoregulation and Acclimatization Challenge Human Adaptation to Global Warming," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-41, July.
    8. L. Mariotti & I. Diallo & E. Coppola & F. Giorgi, 2014. "Seasonal and intraseasonal changes of African monsoon climates in 21st century CORDEX projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 53-65, July.
    9. Flavio Lehner & Clara Deser & Benjamin M. Sanderson, 2018. "Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 363-375, February.
    10. Sebastian Sippel & F Otto, 2014. "Beyond climatological extremes - assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 381-398, August.
    11. Yue Li & Paulo M. Brando & Douglas C. Morton & David M. Lawrence & Hui Yang & James T. Randerson, 2022. "Deforestation-induced climate change reduces carbon storage in remaining tropical forests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    12. Tianshi Du & Shengpeng Wang & Zhao Jing & Lixin Wu & Chao Zhang & Bihan Zhang, 2024. "Future changes in coastal upwelling and biological production in eastern boundary upwelling systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    13. Mario Schuster & Julian Krüger & Rainer Lueg, 2025. "Physical climate risk: Stock price reactions to the historically most extreme European and United States heat waves since 1979," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(1), pages 1-21, January.
    14. Salvatore Pascale & Sarah B. Kapnick & Thomas L. Delworth & Hugo G. Hidalgo & William F. Cooke, 2021. "Natural variability vs forced signal in the 2015–2019 Central American drought," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-21, October.
    15. David Hidalgo García & Julián Arco Díaz & Adelaida Martín Martín & Emilio Gómez Cobos, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of Urban Thermal Effects Caused by Heat Waves through Remote Sensing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-24, September.
    16. Jascha Lehmann & Dim Coumou & Katja Frieler, 2015. "Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 501-515, October.
    17. Shijie Zhou & Ping Huang & Lin Wang & Kaiming Hu & Gang Huang & Peng Hu, 2024. "Robust changes in global subtropical circulation under greenhouse warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    18. Léo Régnier & Maxim Dolgushev & Olivier Bénichou, 2023. "Record ages of non-Markovian scale-invariant random walks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-7, December.
    19. Ralph Trancoso & Jozef Syktus & Richard P. Allan & Jacky Croke & Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Robin Chadwick, 2024. "Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    20. Zheng, Zhonghua & Zhao, Lei & Oleson, Keith W., 2020. "Large model parameter and structural uncertainties in global projections of urban heat waves," Earth Arxiv f5pwa, Center for Open Science.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-57501-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.