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Sea-level rise will likely accelerate rock coast cliff retreat rates

Author

Listed:
  • Jennifer R. Shadrick

    (Imperial College London)

  • Dylan H. Rood

    (Imperial College London)

  • Martin D. Hurst

    (University of Glasgow)

  • Matthew D. Piggott

    (Imperial College London)

  • Bethany G. Hebditch

    (Imperial College London)

  • Alexander J. Seal

    (Imperial College London)

  • Klaus M. Wilcken

    (Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organization (ANSTO))

Abstract

Coastal response to anthropogenic climate change is of central importance to the infrastructure and inhabitants in these areas. Despite being globally ubiquitous, the stability of rock coasts has been largely neglected, and the expected acceleration of cliff erosion following sea-level rise has not been tested with empirical data, until now. We have optimised a coastal evolution model to topographic and cosmogenic radionuclide data to quantify cliff retreat rates for the past 8000 years and forecast rates for the next century. Here we show that rates of cliff retreat will increase by up to an order of magnitude by 2100 according to current predictions of sea-level rise: an increase much greater than previously predicted. This study challenges conventional coastal management practices by revealing that even historically stable rock coasts are highly sensitive to sea-level rise and should be included in future planning for global climate change response.

Suggested Citation

  • Jennifer R. Shadrick & Dylan H. Rood & Martin D. Hurst & Matthew D. Piggott & Bethany G. Hebditch & Alexander J. Seal & Klaus M. Wilcken, 2022. "Sea-level rise will likely accelerate rock coast cliff retreat rates," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-34386-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34386-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan Trenhaile, 2011. "Predicting the response of hard and soft rock coasts to changes in sea level and wave height," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 599-615, December.
    2. Zuzanna M. Swirad & Nick J. Rosser & Matthew J. Brain & Dylan H. Rood & Martin D. Hurst & Klaus M. Wilcken & John Barlow, 2020. "Cosmogenic exposure dating reveals limited long-term variability in erosion of a rocky coastline," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Michalis I. Vousdoukas & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Lorenzo Mentaschi & Theocharis A. Plomaritis & Panagiotis Athanasiou & Arjen Luijendijk & Luc Feyen, 2020. "Sandy coastlines under threat of erosion," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(3), pages 260-263, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. M. E. Dickson & H. Matsumoto & W. J. Stephenson & Z. M. Swirad & C. F. Thompson & A. P. Young, 2023. "Sea-level rise may not uniformly accelerate cliff erosion rates," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-3, December.
    2. Jennifer R. Shadrick & Dylan H. Rood & Martin D. Hurst, 2023. "Reply to: Sea-level rise may not uniformly accelerate cliff erosion rates," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-2, December.

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