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The deglacial forest conundrum

Author

Listed:
  • Anne Dallmeyer

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

  • Thomas Kleinen

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

  • Martin Claussen

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
    Universität Hamburg)

  • Nils Weitzel

    (Heidelberg University
    University of Tübingen)

  • Xianyong Cao

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Ulrike Herzschuh

    (Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    University of Potsdam
    University of Potsdam)

Abstract

How fast the Northern Hemisphere (NH) forest biome tracks strongly warming climates is largely unknown. Regional studies reveal lags between decades and millennia. Here we report a conundrum: Deglacial forest expansion in the NH extra-tropics occurs approximately 4000 years earlier in a transient MPI-ESM1.2 simulation than shown by pollen-based biome reconstructions. Shortcomings in the model and the reconstructions could both contribute to this mismatch, leaving the underlying causes unresolved. The simulated vegetation responds within decades to simulated climate changes, which agree with pollen-independent reconstructions. Thus, we can exclude climate biases as main driver for differences. Instead, the mismatch points at a multi-millennial disequilibrium of the NH forest biome to the climate signal. Therefore, the evaluation of time-slice simulations in strongly changing climates with pollen records should be critically reassessed. Our results imply that NH forests may be responding much slower to ongoing climate changes than Earth System Models predict.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne Dallmeyer & Thomas Kleinen & Martin Claussen & Nils Weitzel & Xianyong Cao & Ulrike Herzschuh, 2022. "The deglacial forest conundrum," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-33646-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33646-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wen-Yong Guo & Josep M. Serra-Diaz & Wolf L. Eiserhardt & Brian S. Maitner & Cory Merow & Cyrille Violle & Matthew J. Pound & Miao Sun & Ferry Slik & Anne Blach-Overgaard & Brian J. Enquist & Jens-Chr, 2023. "Climate change and land use threaten global hotspots of phylogenetic endemism for trees," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.

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