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Impact of tiered restrictions on human activities and the epidemiology of the second wave of COVID-19 in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Mattia Manica

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation
    FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit)

  • Giorgio Guzzetta

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation
    FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit)

  • Flavia Riccardo

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità)

  • Antonio Valenti

    (Italian Workers’ Compensation Authority (INAIL))

  • Piero Poletti

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation
    FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit)

  • Valentina Marziano

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation
    FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit)

  • Filippo Trentini

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation
    FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit)

  • Xanthi Andrianou

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità
    Cyprus University of Technology)

  • Alberto Mateo-Urdiales

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità
    European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC))

  • Martina del Manso

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità
    European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC))

  • Massimo Fabiani

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità)

  • Maria Fenicia Vescio

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità)

  • Matteo Spuri

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità)

  • Daniele Petrone

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità)

  • Antonino Bella

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità)

  • Sergio Iavicoli

    (Italian Workers’ Compensation Authority (INAIL))

  • Marco Ajelli

    (Indiana University School of Public Health
    Northeastern University)

  • Silvio Brusaferro

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità)

  • Patrizio Pezzotti

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità)

  • Stefano Merler

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation
    FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit)

Abstract

To counter the second COVID-19 wave in autumn 2020, the Italian government introduced a system of physical distancing measures organized in progressively restrictive tiers (coded as yellow, orange, and red) imposed on a regional basis according to real-time epidemiological risk assessments. We leverage the data from the Italian COVID-19 integrated surveillance system and publicly available mobility data to evaluate the impact of the three-tiered regional restriction system on human activities, SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and hospitalization burden in Italy. The individuals’ attendance to locations outside the residential settings was progressively reduced with tiers, but less than during the national lockdown against the first COVID-19 wave in the spring. The reproduction number R(t) decreased below the epidemic threshold in 85 out of 107 provinces after the introduction of the tier system, reaching average values of about 0.95-1.02 in the yellow tier, 0.80-0.93 in the orange tier and 0.74-0.83 in the red tier. We estimate that the reduced transmissibility resulted in averting about 36% of the hospitalizations between November 6 and November 25, 2020. These results are instrumental to inform public health efforts aimed at preventing future resurgence of cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Mattia Manica & Giorgio Guzzetta & Flavia Riccardo & Antonio Valenti & Piero Poletti & Valentina Marziano & Filippo Trentini & Xanthi Andrianou & Alberto Mateo-Urdiales & Martina del Manso & Massimo F, 2021. "Impact of tiered restrictions on human activities and the epidemiology of the second wave of COVID-19 in Italy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-24832-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24832-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Brian Cepparulo, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 restrictions on economic activity: Evidence from the Italian regional system," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2022 15, Stata Users Group.
    2. Pan Zhang & Zhouling Bai, 2024. "Leaving messages as coproduction: impact of government COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions on citizens’ online participation in China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Cepparulo, Brian & Jump, Robert Calvert, 2022. "The impact of Covid-19 restrictions on economic activity: evidence from the Italian regional system," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 37801, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    4. Yuanchen He & Yinzi Chen & Lin Yang & Ying Zhou & Run Ye & Xiling Wang, 2022. "The impact of multi-level interventions on the second-wave SARS-CoV-2 transmission in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(9), pages 1-12, September.
    5. Biondi, Beatrice & Mazzocchi, Mario, 2024. "An empirical analysis of the effect of economic activity and COVID-19 restrictions on road traffic accidents in Italy," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    6. Merkaj, Elvina & Santolini, Raffaella, 2022. "Italian national policies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: The case of the Friuli-Venezia-Giulia and Umbria Regions," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(4), pages 287-293.

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