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Learning about climate change uncertainty enables flexible water infrastructure planning

Author

Listed:
  • Sarah Fletcher

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Megan Lickley

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Kenneth Strzepek

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Water resources planning requires decision-making about infrastructure development under uncertainty in future regional climate conditions. However, uncertainty in climate change projections will evolve over the 100-year lifetime of a dam as new climate observations become available. Flexible strategies in which infrastructure is proactively designed to be changed in the future have the potential to meet water supply needs without expensive over-building. Evaluating tradeoffs between flexible and traditional static planning approaches requires extension of current paradigms for planning under climate change uncertainty which do not assess opportunities to reduce uncertainty in the future. We develop a new planning framework that assesses the potential to learn about regional climate change over time and therefore evaluates the appropriateness of flexible approaches today. We demonstrate it on a reservoir planning problem in Mombasa, Kenya. This approach identifies opportunities to reliably use incremental approaches, enabling adaptation investments to reach more vulnerable communities with fewer resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Fletcher & Megan Lickley & Kenneth Strzepek, 2019. "Learning about climate change uncertainty enables flexible water infrastructure planning," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-09677-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09677-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Xueke Li & Amanda H. Lynch, 2023. "New insights into projected Arctic sea road: operational risks, economic values, and policy implications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(4), pages 1-16, April.
    2. Xu, Xin & Huang, Shupei & Lucey, Brian M. & An, Haizhong, 2023. "The impacts of climate policy uncertainty on stock markets: Comparison between China and the US," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Maria da Conceição Cunha, 2023. "Water and Environmental Systems Management Under Uncertainty: From Scenario Construction to Robust Solutions and Adaptation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2271-2285, May.
    4. Francesco Pugliese & Carlo Gerundo & Francesco Paola & Gerardo Caroppi & Maurizio Giugni, 2022. "Enhancing the Urban Resilience to Flood Risk Through a Decision Support Tool for the LID-BMPs Optimal Design," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(14), pages 5633-5654, November.
    5. Veruska Muccione & Thomas Lontzek & Christian Huggel & Philipp Ott & Nadine Salzmann, 2023. "An application of dynamic programming to local adaptation decision-making," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 523-544, October.
    6. Aymen Sawassi & Roula Khadra, 2021. "Bibliometric Network Analysis of “Water Systems’ Adaptation to Climate Change Uncertainties”: Concepts, Approaches, Gaps, and Opportunities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-14, June.
    7. Sawassi, Aymen & Ottomano Palmisano, Giovanni & Crookston, Brian & Khadra, Roula, 2022. "The Dominance-based Rough Set Approach for analysing patterns of flexibility allocation and design-cost criteria in large-scale irrigation systems," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).

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