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Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts

Author

Listed:
  • Nathalie Schaller

    (Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford
    Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford)

  • Alison L. Kay

    (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology)

  • Rob Lamb

    (JBA Trust
    Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University)

  • Neil R. Massey

    (Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford)

  • Geert Jan van Oldenborgh

    (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut)

  • Friederike E. L. Otto

    (Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford)

  • Sarah N. Sparrow

    (Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford)

  • Robert Vautard

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement & IPSL, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ)

  • Pascal Yiou

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement & IPSL, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ)

  • Ian Ashpole

    (Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford)

  • Andy Bowery

    (Oxford e-Research Centre)

  • Susan M. Crooks

    (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology)

  • Karsten Haustein

    (Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford)

  • Chris Huntingford

    (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology)

  • William J. Ingram

    (Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford
    Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Richard G. Jones

    (Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford
    Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Tim Legg

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Jonathan Miller

    (Oxford e-Research Centre)

  • Jessica Skeggs

    (JBA Risk Management Ltd)

  • David Wallom

    (Oxford e-Research Centre)

  • Antje Weisheimer

    (Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford
    National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Oxford
    European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF))

  • Simon Wilson

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Peter A. Stott

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Myles R. Allen

    (Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford
    Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford)

Abstract

A succession of storms reaching southern England in the winter of 2013/2014 caused severe floods and £451 million insured losses. In a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we find that, as well as increasing the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold, anthropogenic warming caused a small but significant increase in the number of January days with westerly flow, both of which increased extreme precipitation. Hydrological modelling indicates this increased extreme 30-day-average Thames river flows, and slightly increased daily peak flows, consistent with the understanding of the catchment’s sensitivity to longer-duration precipitation and changes in the role of snowmelt. Consequently, flood risk mapping shows a small increase in properties in the Thames catchment potentially at risk of riverine flooding, with a substantial range of uncertainty, demonstrating the importance of explicit modelling of impacts and relatively subtle changes in weather-related risks when quantifying present-day effects of human influence on climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathalie Schaller & Alison L. Kay & Rob Lamb & Neil R. Massey & Geert Jan van Oldenborgh & Friederike E. L. Otto & Sarah N. Sparrow & Robert Vautard & Pascal Yiou & Ian Ashpole & Andy Bowery & Susan M, 2016. "Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(6), pages 627-634, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:6:y:2016:i:6:d:10.1038_nclimate2927
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2927
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    Cited by:

    1. Friederike E. L. Otto & Sjoukje Philip & Sarah Kew & Sihan Li & Andrew King & Heidi Cullen, 2018. "Attributing high-impact extreme events across timescales—a case study of four different types of events," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 399-412, August.
    2. Pascal Yiou & Julien Cattiaux & Aurélien Ribes & Robert Vautard & Mathieu Vrac, 2018. "Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-8, February.
    3. Sufia Rehman & Mehebub Sahana & Haoyuan Hong & Haroon Sajjad & Baharin Bin Ahmed, 2019. "A systematic review on approaches and methods used for flood vulnerability assessment: framework for future research," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(2), pages 975-998, March.
    4. Ben Clarke & Friederike Otto & Richard Jones, 2023. "When don’t we need a new extreme event attribution study?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(5), pages 1-19, May.
    5. Batten,, Sandra & Sowerbutts, Rhiannon & Tanaka, Misa, 2016. "Let’s talk about the weather: the impact of climate change on central banks," Bank of England working papers 603, Bank of England.
    6. Michael Wehner & Christopher Sampson, 2021. "Attributable human-induced changes in the magnitude of flooding in the Houston, Texas region during Hurricane Harvey," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-13, May.

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