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300 years of sclerosponge thermometry shows global warming has exceeded 1.5 °C

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  • Malcolm T. McCulloch

    (The University of Western Australia
    The University of Western Australia)

  • Amos Winter

    (Indiana State University)

  • Clark E. Sherman

    (University of Puerto Rico-Mayaguez)

  • Julie A. Trotter

    (The University of Western Australia)

Abstract

Anthropogenic emissions drive global-scale warming yet the temperature increase relative to pre-industrial levels is uncertain. Using 300 years of ocean mixed-layer temperature records preserved in sclerosponge carbonate skeletons, we demonstrate that industrial-era warming began in the mid-1860s, more than 80 years earlier than instrumental sea surface temperature records. The Sr/Ca palaeothermometer was calibrated against ‘modern’ (post-1963) highly correlated (R2 = 0.91) instrumental records of global sea surface temperatures, with the pre-industrial defined by nearly constant (

Suggested Citation

  • Malcolm T. McCulloch & Amos Winter & Clark E. Sherman & Julie A. Trotter, 2024. "300 years of sclerosponge thermometry shows global warming has exceeded 1.5 °C," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(2), pages 171-177, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1038_s41558-023-01919-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01919-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Van Vyve, Mathieu, 2024. "Identifying when thresholds from the Paris Agreement are breached : the minmax average, a novel smoothing approach," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2024004, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

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