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Realizing the social value of impermanent carbon credits

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Balmford

    (University of Cambridge
    University of Cambridge)

  • Srinivasan Keshav

    (University of Cambridge
    University of Cambridge)

  • Frank Venmans

    (London School of Economics)

  • David Coomes

    (University of Cambridge
    University of Cambridge)

  • Ben Groom

    (London School of Economics
    University of Exeter Business School)

  • Anil Madhavapeddy

    (University of Cambridge
    University of Cambridge)

  • Tom Swinfield

    (University of Cambridge
    University of Cambridge)

Abstract

Efforts to avert dangerous climate change by conserving and restoring natural habitats are hampered by concerns over the credibility of methods used to quantify their long-term impacts. Here we develop a flexible framework for estimating the net social benefit of impermanent nature-based interventions that integrates three substantial advances: (1) conceptualizing the permanence of a project’s impact as its additionality over time; (2) risk-averse estimation of the social cost of future reversals of carbon gains; and (3) post-credit monitoring to correct errors in deliberately pessimistic release forecasts. Our framework generates incentives for safeguarding already credited carbon while enabling would-be investors to make like-for-like comparisons of diverse carbon projects. Preliminary analyses suggest nature-derived credits may be competitively priced even after adjusting for impermanence.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Balmford & Srinivasan Keshav & Frank Venmans & David Coomes & Ben Groom & Anil Madhavapeddy & Tom Swinfield, 2023. "Realizing the social value of impermanent carbon credits," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(11), pages 1172-1178, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:11:d:10.1038_s41558-023-01815-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01815-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Estelle Cantillon & Aurélie Slechten, 2023. "Market Design for the Environment," NBER Chapters, in: New Directions in Market Design, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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