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Tracking the reach of COVID-19 kin loss with a bereavement multiplier applied to the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Ashton M. Verdery

    (Department of Sociology and Criminology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802)

  • Emily Smith-Greenaway

    (Department of Sociology, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089)

  • Rachel Margolis

    (Department of Sociology, University of Western Ontario, London, ON N6A 5C2, Canada)

  • Jonathan Daw

    (Department of Sociology and Criminology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802)

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to a large increase in mortality in the United States and around the world, leaving many grieving the sudden loss of family members. We created an indicator—the COVID-19 bereavement multiplier—that estimates the average number of individuals who will experience the death of a close relative (defined as a grandparent, parent, sibling, spouse, or child) for each COVID-19 death. Using demographic microsimulation-based estimates of kinship networks in the United States, the clear age gradient in COVID-19 mortality seen across contexts, and several hypothetical infection prevalence scenarios, we estimate COVID-19 bereavement multipliers for White and Black individuals in the United States. Our analysis shows that for every COVID-19 death, approximately nine surviving Americans will lose a grandparent, parent, sibling, spouse, or child. These estimates imply, for example, that if 190,000 Americans die from COVID-19, as some models project, then ∼1.7 million will experience the death of a close relative. We demonstrate that our estimates of the bereavement multiplier are stable across epidemiological realities, including infection scenarios, total number of deaths, and the distribution of deaths, which means researchers can estimate the bereavement burden over the course of the epidemic in lockstep with rising death tolls. In addition, we provide estimates of bereavement multipliers by age group, types of kin loss, and race to illuminate prospective disparities. The bereavement multiplier is a useful indicator for tracking COVID-19’s multiplicative impact as it reverberates across American families and can be tailored to other causes of death.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashton M. Verdery & Emily Smith-Greenaway & Rachel Margolis & Jonathan Daw, 2020. "Tracking the reach of COVID-19 kin loss with a bereavement multiplier applied to the United States," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(30), pages 17695-17701, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:117:y:2020:p:17695-17701
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    Cited by:

    1. Nathaniel Geiger & Anagha Gore & Claire V. Squire & Shahzeen Z. Attari, 2021. "Investigating similarities and differences in individual reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic and the climate crisis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Thyden, Naomi Harada & Slaughter-Acey, Jaime & Widome, Rachel & Warren, John Robert & Osypuk, Theresa L., 2023. "Family deaths in the early life course and their association with later educational attainment in a longitudinal cohort study," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    3. Diego Alburez-Gutierrez, 2021. "The demographic drivers of grief and memory after genocide in Guatemala," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2021-003, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Sha Jiang & Wenyun Zuo & Zhen Guo & Hal Caswell & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2023. "How does the demographic transition affect kinship networks?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(32), pages 899-930.
    5. Toni P. Miles & Changle Li & M. Mahmud Khan & Rana Bayakly & Deborah Carr, 2023. "Estimating Prevalence of Bereavement, Its Contribution to Risk for Binge Drinking, and Other High-Risk Health States in a State Population Survey, 2019 Georgia Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Surv," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(10), pages 1-15, May.
    6. Diego Alburez‐Gutierrez & Carl Mason & Emilio Zagheni, 2021. "The “Sandwich Generation” Revisited: Global Demographic Drivers of Care Time Demands," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(4), pages 997-1023, December.
    7. Jonah P. DeChants & Myeshia N. Price & Ronita Nath & Carrie K. Davis, 2023. "Losing a Close Friend or Family Member Due to COVID-19 and Mental Health among LGBTQ Youth," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(12), pages 1-10, June.
    8. R. S. Zaharna, 2022. "The pandemic’s wake-up call for humanity-centered public diplomacy," Place Branding and Public Diplomacy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(1), pages 4-7, March.
    9. Renzhihui Tang & Tong Xie & Keyuan Jiao & Xin Xu & Xinyan Zou & Wenli Qian & Jianping Wang, 2021. "Grief Reactions and Grief Counseling among Bereaved Chinese Individuals during COVID-19 Pandemic: Study Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial Combined with a Longitudinal Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(17), pages 1-12, August.
    10. Goodwill, Janelle R. & Fike, Kayla J., 2023. "Black in the pandemic: Comparing experiences of mistrust, anxiety, and the COVID-19 vaccine among Black adults in the U.S," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 338(C).

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