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Adaptive social networks promote the wisdom of crowds

Author

Listed:
  • Abdullah Almaatouq

    (Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02142; Media Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139)

  • Alejandro Noriega-Campero

    (Media Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139)

  • Abdulrahman Alotaibi

    (Media Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139)

  • P. M. Krafft

    (Oxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3JS, United Kingdom)

  • Mehdi Moussaid

    (Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, 14195 Berlin, Germany)

  • Alex Pentland

    (Media Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139)

Abstract

Social networks continuously change as new ties are created and existing ones fade. It is widely acknowledged that our social embedding has a substantial impact on what information we receive and how we form beliefs and make decisions. However, most empirical studies on the role of social networks in collective intelligence have overlooked the dynamic nature of social networks and its role in fostering adaptive collective intelligence. Therefore, little is known about how groups of individuals dynamically modify their local connections and, accordingly, the topology of the network of interactions to respond to changing environmental conditions. In this paper, we address this question through a series of behavioral experiments and supporting simulations. Our results reveal that, in the presence of plasticity and feedback, social networks can adapt to biased and changing information environments and produce collective estimates that are more accurate than their best-performing member. To explain these results, we explore two mechanisms: 1) a global-adaptation mechanism where the structural connectivity of the network itself changes such that it amplifies the estimates of high-performing members within the group (i.e., the network “edges” encode the computation); and 2) a local-adaptation mechanism where accurate individuals are more resistant to social influence (i.e., adjustments to the attributes of the “node” in the network); therefore, their initial belief is disproportionately weighted in the collective estimate. Our findings substantiate the role of social-network plasticity and feedback as key adaptive mechanisms for refining individual and collective judgments.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdullah Almaatouq & Alejandro Noriega-Campero & Abdulrahman Alotaibi & P. M. Krafft & Mehdi Moussaid & Alex Pentland, 2020. "Adaptive social networks promote the wisdom of crowds," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(21), pages 11379-11386, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:117:y:2020:p:11379-11386
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Husam AlWaer & Joshua Speedie & Ian Cooper, 2021. "Unhealthy Neighbourhood “Syndrome”: A Useful Label for Analysing and Providing Advice on Urban Design Decision-Making?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-30, June.
    2. Niccolo Pescetelli, 2021. "A Brief Taxonomy of Hybrid Intelligence," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-11, September.
    3. Li, Wen-Jing & Jiang, Luo-Luo & Chen, Zhi & Perc, Matjaž & Slavinec, Mitja, 2020. "Optimization of mobile individuals promotes cooperation in social dilemmas," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Cherry, Todd L. & James, Alexander G. & Murphy, James, 2021. "The impact of public health messaging and personal experience on the acceptance of mask wearing during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 415-430.
    5. Michael Foley & Rory Smead & Patrick Forber & Christoph Riedl, 2021. "Avoiding the bullies: The resilience of cooperation among unequals," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(4), pages 1-18, April.
    6. Joshua Becker & Abdullah Almaatouq & EmH{o}ke-'Agnes Horv'at, 2020. "Network Structures of Collective Intelligence: The Contingent Benefits of Group Discussion," Papers 2009.07202, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    7. Li Zhenpeng & Tang Xijin, 2021. "Stimuli strategy and learning dynamics promote the wisdom of crowds," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 94(12), pages 1-8, December.
    8. Joshua Becker & Douglas Guilbeault & Ned Smith, 2021. "The Crowd Classification Problem: Social Dynamics of Binary Choice Accuracy," Papers 2104.11300, arXiv.org.

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