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How Does the Change in Investor Sentiment over Time Affect Stock Returns?

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  • Cherng Ding
  • Hung-Jui Wang
  • Meng-Che Lee
  • Wen-Chi Hung
  • Chieh-Peng Lin

Abstract

We examine how the change in investor sentiment (IS) over time (the IS trend) affects stock returns. The turnover rates of trading shares, trading value, and transactions, three market measures of trading activity, have been demonstrated to meet the psychometric criteria for measuring the IS trend. The ratio of market price to book value and the short-selling turnover ratio are inappropriate proxies. The empirical results indicate that the influence of the IS trend on returns depends on the direction of the trend (optimistic or pessimistic) and stock characteristics of individual holdings and on arbitrage constraint. The effectiveness of arbitrage, sentiment-driven mispricing, and market intervention are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Cherng Ding & Hung-Jui Wang & Meng-Che Lee & Wen-Chi Hung & Chieh-Peng Lin, 2014. "How Does the Change in Investor Sentiment over Time Affect Stock Returns?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(S2), pages 144-158.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:50:y:2014:i:s2:p:144-158
    DOI: 10.2753/REE1540-496X5002S210
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    Cited by:

    1. Ding, Cherng G. & Wang, Hung-Jui & Lee, Meng-Che & Hung, Wen-Chi & Jane, Ten-Der, 2021. "Assessing the reversal of investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    2. Chen, Haozhi & Zhang, Yue, 2023. "Research on the effect of firm-specific investor sentiment on the idiosyncratic volatility anomaly: Evidence from the Chinese market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Gaoshan Wang & Guangjin Yu & Xiaohong Shen, 2020. "The Effect of Online Investor Sentiment on Stock Movements: An LSTM Approach," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-11, December.
    4. Goodell, John W. & Kumar, Satish & Rao, Purnima & Verma, Shubhangi, 2023. "Emotions and stock market anomalies: A systematic review," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    5. Wang, Gaoshan & Yu, Guangjin & Shen, Xiaohong, 2021. "The effect of online environmental news on green industry stocks: The mediating role of investor sentiment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 573(C).
    6. Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Gajdka, Jerzy & Kutan, Ali M., 2015. "Investor response to public news, sentiment and institutional trading in emerging markets: A review," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 338-352.

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