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Egyenes-e a tőkepiaci árazási modell (CAPM) karakterisztikus és értékpapír-piaci egyenese?
[Is CAPMs characteristic, security-market line a straight one?]

  • Ormos, Mihály

    ()

  • Erdős, Péter
  • Zibriczky, Dávid

Tanulmányunk egyrészt arra a kérdésre keresi a választ, vajon helytálló-e a tőkepiaci árazási modell (CAPM) azon feltevése, hogy a piaci kockázat mérőszáma, a béta és a várható hozam között lineáris kapcsolat áll fenn. Másrészt nem tudjuk, hogy megalapozott-e a kockázati mérőszám meghatározásához tett linearitási feltétel. Ha a karakterisztikus egyenesek linearitása sérül, akkor új kockázati mértékek levezetésére van szükség. Vizsgálatainkat a Standard & Poors nagy-, közép- és kisvállalati részvényindex-komponensekből vett, 150 részvényből álló véletlen mintán végezzük el. Az amerikai részvények karakterisztikus egyeneseinek linearitása minden szokásos szignifikanciaszinten elvethető, ezért szemiparametrikus kockázati mértékeket vezetünk le. Írásunkban megmutatjuk, hogy ha a karakterisztikus egyenes linearitása sérül, akkor a tőkepiaci árazási modell bétaja átlagosan szignifikánsan alulbecsli az értékpapír kockázatát, ezért a standard piaci kockázati mérték nem használható. Eredményeink alapján megfogalmazhatjuk azt az állítást, hogy a piacot csak extrém körülmények között lehet megverni. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C14, C51, G12, G32.

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Article provided by Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation) in its journal Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences).

Volume (Year): LVII (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 201-221

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Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1153
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