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Price Expectation and the Pricing of Stock Index Futures


  • Hsinan Hsu


  • Janchung Wang



Capital markets are not perfect or frictionless, and arbitrage mechanism cannot be complete, particularly for index arbitrage. This study constructs a theoretical foundation to explain why the price expectation of the underlying asset should be entered into the pricing formula of stock index futures. The price expectation and incompleteness of arbitrage then are taken into account to develop a pricing model of stock index futures in imperfect markets. This study also presents three approaches for estimating the model parameter. Finally, the concept of the degree of market imperfection is defined and the valuation model is provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsinan Hsu & Janchung Wang, 2004. "Price Expectation and the Pricing of Stock Index Futures," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 167-184, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:23:y:2004:i:2:p:167-184

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    Cited by:

    1. Lin, Xiaoqiang & Chen, Qiang & Tang, Zhenpeng, 2014. "Dynamic hedging strategy in incomplete market: Evidence from Shanghai fuel oil futures market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 81-90.
    2. Kapil Gupta & Balwinder Singh, 2007. "Investigating the Pricing Efficiency of Indian Equity Futures Market," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 32(4), pages 486-512, November.
    3. Inci, Ahmet Can & Lu, Biao, 2007. "Currency futures-spot basis and risk premium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 180-197, April.
    4. Edyta Marcinkiewicz, 2016. "Short Sale and Index Futures Mispricing: Evidence from the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2016(5), pages 547-559.

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