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Empirical Evidence on the Austrian Business Cycle Theory

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  • Keeler, James P

Abstract

The Austrian business cycle theory suggests that a monetary shock disturbs relative prices, such as the term structure of interest rates, systematically altering profit rates across economic sectors. Resource use responds to those changes, generating a cyclical pattern of real income. The divergence of the interest rate structure, from the previous and unchanged time preferences, means that the expansion is unsustainable and must end in recession. Quarterly data for eight U.S. business cycles, 1950:1 through 1991:1 are standardized by time period and used to explore business cycle facts and relations between money, interest rates, capacity utilization and income. Results are consistent with the hypotheses of the Austrian theory of a business cycle caused by a monetary shock and propagated by relative price changes. Copyright 2001 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Keeler, James P, 2001. "Empirical Evidence on the Austrian Business Cycle Theory," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 14(4), pages 331-351, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:revaec:v:14:y:2001:i:4:p:331-51
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lester & Jonathan Wolff, 2013. "The empirical relevance of the Mises-Hayek theory of the trade cycle," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 433-461, December.
    2. Philipp Bagus, 2008. "Monetary policy as bad medicine: The volatile relationship between business cycles and asset prices," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 21(4), pages 283-300, December.
    3. Thierry Aimar & Francis Bismans & Claude Diebolt, 2010. "Le cycle économique : une synthèse," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 24(4), pages 3-65.
    4. Andreas Hoffmann, 2014. "Zero-interest Rate Policy and Unintended Consequences in Emerging Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(10), pages 1367-1387, October.
    5. J. Subrick & Andrew Young, 2010. "Nobelity and novelty: Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott’s contributions viewed from Vienna," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 35-53, March.
    6. repec:kap:revaec:v:30:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11138-016-0340-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Robert F. Mulligan, 2005. "The Austrian Business Cycle: a Vector Error-correction Model with Commercial and Industrial Loans," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 21(Fall 2005), pages 59-91.
    8. Facchini, François, 2004. "La théorie autrichienne des cycles : une théorie de la récurrence des erreurs collectives d’anticipation," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 80(1), pages 67-94, Mars.
    9. George Bitros, 2008. "Why the structure of capital and the useful lives of its components matter: A test based on a model of Austrian descent," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 21(4), pages 301-328, December.
    10. Robert Mulligan, 2006. "Accounting for the business cycle: Nominal rigidities, factor heterogeneity, and Austrian capital theory," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 19(4), pages 311-336, December.
    11. Anthony Carilli & Gregory Dempster, 2008. "Is the Austrian business cycle theory still relevant?," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 21(4), pages 271-281, December.
    12. Andrew Young, 2012. "The time structure of production in the US, 2002–2009," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 77-92, June.
    13. Andreas Hoffmann, 2014. "Zero-Interest Rate Policy and Unintended Consequences in Emerging Markets," ICER Working Papers 02-2014, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    14. Cachanosky, Nicolás & Lewin, Peter, 2016. "An empirical application of the EVA® framework to business cycles," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 60-67.
    15. Martin Komrska, 2015. "Rakouská teorie hospodářského cyklu: VAR analýza pro USA v letech 1978-2013
      [The Austrian Business Cycle Theory: VAR Analysis for USA between 1978-2013]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2015(1), pages 57-73.
    16. Aykut Ekinci, 2016. "Rethinking Credit Risk under the Malinvestment Concept: The Case of Germany, Spain and Italy," European Financial and Accounting Journal, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2016(1), pages 39-64.
    17. Andrzej Jędruchniewicz, 2015. "The Price Structure in the Polish Business Cycle. The Downward Phase," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 40.
    18. William Luther & Mark Cohen, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 42(2), pages 153-169, June.

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