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Is Choice the Correct Primitive? On Using Certainty Equivalents and Reference Levels to Predict Choices among Gambles

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  • Luce, R Duncan
  • Mellers, Barbara A
  • Chang, Shi-jie

Abstract

Choice is viewed as a derived, not a primitive, concept. Individual gambles are assigned subjective certainty equivalents the choice set "X" has an associated reference level [RL("X")] based on the certainty equivalents of its members; the outcomes of each gamble are recoded as deviations from the RL("X"); and new certainty equivalents are constructed. The gamble having the largest new certainty equivalents is chosen. The certainty equivalents are described by the rank- and sign-dependent theory of Luce (1992). The concept of RL is studied axiomatically. The model predicts many behavioral anomalies and is tested with data sets of Mellers, Chang, Birnbaum, and Ordonez (1992). Copyright 1993 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Luce, R Duncan & Mellers, Barbara A & Chang, Shi-jie, 1993. "Is Choice the Correct Primitive? On Using Certainty Equivalents and Reference Levels to Predict Choices among Gambles," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 115-143, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:6:y:1993:i:2:p:115-43
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    Cited by:

    1. Yves Alarie & Georges Dionne, 2006. "Lottery qualities," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 195-216, May.
    2. Diecidue, Enrico & Schmidt, Ulrich & Zank, Horst, 2009. "Parametric weighting functions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 1102-1118, May.
    3. Daniel Cavagnaro & Mark Pitt & Richard Gonzalez & Jay Myung, 2013. "Discriminating among probability weighting functions using adaptive design optimization," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 255-289, December.
    4. Navarro-Martinez, Daniel & Loomes, Graham & Isoni, Andrea & Butler, David & Alaoui, Larbi, 2017. "Boundedly Rational Expected Utility Theory," MPRA Paper 79893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Epper, Thomas & Fehr-Duda, Helga, 2017. "A Tale of Two Tails: On the Coexistence of Overweighting and Underweighting of Rare Extreme Events," Economics Working Paper Series 1705, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    6. William S. Neilson, 2000. "Victory and Defeat in a Model of Behavior in Games and Toward Risk," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0690, Econometric Society.
    7. Liang Zou, 2006. "An Alternative to Prospect Theory," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 7(1), pages 1-28, May.

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