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A Growth Maximising Tax Structure for New Zealand

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  • Johannah Branson
  • C. Lovell

Abstract

Annual growth rates of real GDP in New Zealand have varied widely, from 18% to −8%, since World War II. During this period the tax burden (the ratio of tax revenue to GDP) has trended upward from 23% to 35%. The tax mix (the ratio of indirect taxes to direct taxes) has varied between 0.31 and 0.75, having increased recently with the introduction of the goods and services tax. In this paper we estimate a combination of the tax burden and the tax mix which would maximise the rate of growth of real GDP. We find that such a tax structure would have a time-varying tax burden with a mean of 22.5%, and a time-varying tax mix with a mean of 0.54, which implies a mean share of direct taxes in total tax revenue of 65%. We also find that a move to such a tax structure would generate nearly a 17% increase in real GDP, and while this increase would yield a 6% reduction in tax revenue to the Treasury, it would deliver a 27% increase in purchasing power to the remainder of the economy. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

Suggested Citation

  • Johannah Branson & C. Lovell, 2001. "A Growth Maximising Tax Structure for New Zealand," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 8(2), pages 129-146, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:8:y:2001:i:2:p:129-146
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1011216618163
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engen, Eric M. & Skinner, Jonathan, 1996. "Taxation and Economic Growth," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 49(4), pages 617-642, December.
    2. Patrick J. Caragata, & David E. A. Giles, 1998. "Simulating the Relationship Between the Hidden Economy and the Tax Level and Tax Mix in New Zealand," Econometrics Working Papers 9804, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yawovi Mawussé Isaac Amedanou, 2019. "Optimal Taxation and Economic Growth in Togo: Empirical Investigation in Time Series [Taxation Optimale et Croissance Economique au Togo : une Evidence Empirique en Séries Temporelles]," Post-Print hal-01990213, HAL.
    3. Kristof Witte & Wim Moesen, 2010. "Sizing the government," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 39-55, October.
    4. Gonzalo Hernández & María Alejandra Prieto, 2020. "Terms of trade shocks and taxation in developing countries," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 39(81), pages 613-634, July.
    5. Olufemi Muibi SAIBU, 2015. "Optimal tax rate and economic growth. Evidence from Nigeria and South Africa," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(34), pages 41-50, May.
    6. AMEDANOU, Yawovi M. Isaac, 2018. "Examen de l'optimalité de la performance fiscale dans les pays en développement : le cas de l’UEMOA [Review of the optimality of tax performance in developing countries: evidence from WAEMU]," MPRA Paper 89513, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. E. C. Mamatzakis, 2005. "The dynamic responses of growth to tax structure for Greece," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 177-180.
    8. Kashif Munir & Maryam Sultan, 2018. "Are some taxes better for growth in Pakistan? A time series analysis," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(10), pages 1439-1452, August.
    9. Teresa Famulska & Jan Kaczmarzyk & Malgorzata Grzaba, 2021. "The Relationship between the Structure of Tax Revenues and the Structure of Public Expenditure in the Member States of the European Union," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3B), pages 165-185.
    10. Juniours Marire & Tafirenyika Sunde, 2012. "Economic growth and tax structure in Zimbabwe: 1984-2009," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 105-121.
    11. AMEDANOU, Yawovi M. Isaac, 2019. "Taxation Optimale et Croissance Economique au Togo : une Evidence Empirique en Séries Temporelles [Optimal Taxation and Economic Growth in Togo: Empirical Investigation in Time Series]," MPRA Paper 92003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Coll Sebastian, 2014. "Is There Too Much Government in Developed Countries? A Time-Series Analysis of 24 OECD-Economies," Journal of Heterodox Economics, Sciendo, vol. 1(1), pages 1-30, June.

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