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Credible plea bargaining with the Jury’s rational conviction decision

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  • Jeong-Yoo Kim

    (Kyung Hee University)

Abstract

This paper provides a new explanation of how plea bargaining can credibly screen a guilty defendant and an innocent one in a model with the rational jury’s conviction decision. The main departure from the existing literature is that the defendant is privately informed of the strength of his own evidence as well as his guilt or innocence. We dispense with the assumption that the prosecutor commits to no dismissal and resolves the credibility issue without resorting to mixed strategies. We obtain a separating equilibrium in which only the guilty defendant with weak evidence accepts the plea offer, while all other types of defendant reject it, when the prosecutor is so concerned about type II errors that he makes a high plea offer. Separation is possible mainly due to additional evidence of the prosecutor and the defendant revealed during trial that is likely to be stronger for an innocent type of defendant.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeong-Yoo Kim, 2025. "Credible plea bargaining with the Jury’s rational conviction decision," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 491-521, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ejlwec:v:59:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s10657-025-09844-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10657-025-09844-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yacov Tsur, 2017. "Bounding reasonable doubt: implications for plea bargaining," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 197-216, October.
    2. Baker, Scott & Mezzetti, Claudio, 2001. "Prosecutorial Resources, Plea Bargaining, and the Decision to Go to Trial," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 149-167, April.
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    7. Robin Christmann, 2023. "Plea bargaining and investigation effort: inquisitorial criminal procedure as a three-player game," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 497-532, December.
    8. Paul R. Milgrom, 1981. "Good News and Bad News: Representation Theorems and Applications," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(2), pages 380-391, Autumn.
    9. Grossman, Gene M & Katz, Michael L, 1983. "Plea Bargaining and Social Welfare," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 749-757, September.
    10. Jeong-Yoo Kim, 2010. "Credible plea bargaining," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 279-293, June.
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