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Using a Differential Evolutionary Algorithm to Test the Efficient Market Hypothesis

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  • Phillip Simmons

Abstract

The proposition that a relatively new technology such as a differential evolutionary algorithm (DEA) can violate the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis is tested using daily data from the Australian share market from 2000 until 2008. An option trading strategy based on forecasts from a DEA is shown to perform better than a buy and hold strategy over parts of the sample space and, on average, over all of it. Speculators may make supernormal profits using new methodologies however such profits are unlikely to be sustained. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Phillip Simmons, 2012. "Using a Differential Evolutionary Algorithm to Test the Efficient Market Hypothesis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 377-385, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:40:y:2012:i:4:p:377-385
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-012-9314-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    2. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    3. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    4. repec:pri:cepsud:91malkiel is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    6. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Differential evolutionary algorithm; Market efficiency; Speculation; Arbitrage; G14; G17;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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