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Using Attitude Data to Forecast Housing Activity

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Abstract

Several national surveys generate monthly indicators of housing market activity that are released weeks before the "hard" housing statistics (starts, new home sales, existing home sales) for that month. This paper examines whether these surveys of consumers, lenders, and builders can help predict what the current month's housing statistics will be. The conclusion is that these surveys, with the exception of homebuilders' attitudes, add little predictive power to that available from the housing series' own histories and from mortgage interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • John L. Goodman, Jr., 1994. "Using Attitude Data to Forecast Housing Activity," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(4), pages 445-454.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:9:n:4:1994:p:445-454
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    Cited by:

    1. Tim Meyer, 2019. "On the Directional Accuracy of United States Housing Starts Forecasts: Evidence from Survey Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 457-488, April.
    2. Croce, Roberto M. & Haurin, Donald R., 2009. "Predicting turning points in the housing market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 281-293, December.
    3. Steffen Heinig & Anupam Nanda & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2016. "Which Sentiment Indicators Matter? An Analysis of the European Commercial Real Estate Market," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-04, Henley Business School, University of Reading.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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