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Armut im Alter – Ursachenanalyse und eine Projektion für das Jahr 2023: Old Age Poverty – Causes and a Projection for 2023

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  • Kumpmann Ingmar

    () (Abteilung Makroökonomik, Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH), Kleine Märkerstraße 8, 06108 Halle (Saale), Germany)

  • Gühne Michael

    () (Technische Universität Dresden)

  • Buscher Herbert S.

    () (Bereich Formale Methoden und Datenbanken, Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH), Kleine Märkerstraße 8, 06108 Halle (Saale), Germany)

Abstract

Several factors bring about a rise in old age poverty in Germany, especially in East Germany. Using data from the German Socio-economic Panel (SOEP) we examine causes and extent of old age poverty in Germany. We begin our inquiry with a cross section regression in order to determine the impact of several factors on retirement incomes in Germany. In the second step we performan income projection of today’s 50 to 55 year-old people for the year 2023. In doing so, we take into account different sources of income, including several forms of capital income and the calculated rent of owner-occupied houses and flats.We find a significant rise in old age poverty especially in East Germany as a consequence of rising unemployment after the German unification.

Suggested Citation

  • Kumpmann Ingmar & Gühne Michael & Buscher Herbert S., 2012. "Armut im Alter – Ursachenanalyse und eine Projektion für das Jahr 2023: Old Age Poverty – Causes and a Projection for 2023," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(1), pages 61-83, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:232:y:2012:i:1:p:61-83
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gernandt Johannes & Pfeiffer Friedhelm, 2007. "Rising Wage Inequality in Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 227(4), pages 358-380, August.
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    Keywords

    Old age poverty; pension; old age income;

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