IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ist/iujepr/v11y2024i2p263-277.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model

Author

Listed:
  • Zaim Reha Yaşar

    (Kırıkkale University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Kırıkkale-Türkiye)

Abstract

Türkiye is a country in which the COVID-19 pandemic has deeply affected export performance. The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Turkish export performance using different variables indicating the severity of the COVID-19 effects. The effect of COVID-19 on Türkiye’s export performance is empirically analysed with the ARDL approach by employing time series data covering the 2013:q1-2022:q1 period. The estimation results of the six models indicate that COVID-19 does not affect Turkish export performance in the long term, whereas its lagged variables have negative and significant effects in the short term. Foreign income has positive and statistically significant effects on export volumes in both the short and long term. The exchange rate significantly and negatively affects export flows in both the short and long term. The results of this paper are robust against different types of COVID-19 proxies. COVID-19 has negative effects on exports in the short run for Türkiye’s economy. The results indicate that policymakers should consider the lagged effects of variables in addition to the current version. The findings also show the recommendation that short- and long-run estimations should be conducted to determine the short- and long-run relations.

Suggested Citation

  • Zaim Reha Yaşar, 2024. "Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 11(2), pages 263-277, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ist:iujepr:v:11:y:2024:i:2:p:263-277
    DOI: 10.26650/JEPR1477032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/A37F11F62B7445CA9E6D69C84BD1D7FF
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://iupress.istanbul.edu.tr/en/journal/jepr/article/influence-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-on-exports-in-turkiye-evidence-from-ardl-model
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26650/JEPR1477032?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Magnus, Andersson & Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Souknilanh, Keola & Yamanouchi, Kenta, 2021. "Impacts of international transport infrastructure: evidence from Laos households," IDE Discussion Papers 812, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    2. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Mukunoki, Hiroshi, 2020. "Impacts of covid-19 on international trade : evidence from the first quarter of 2020," IDE Discussion Papers 791, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adrian Tudor TUDORACHE, 2021. "COVID-19 Crisis and International Trade.Two Country Cases," REVISTA DE MANAGEMENT COMPARAT INTERNATIONAL/REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE MANAGEMENT, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 22(5), pages 659-669, December.
    2. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Hiroshi Mukunoki, 2021. "Impacts of COVID‐19 on Global Value Chains," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 59(2), pages 154-177, June.
    3. Zainuddin, Muhamad Rias K V & Shukor, Md Shafiin & Zulkifli, Muhamad Solehuddin & Abdullah, Amirul Hamza, 2021. "Dynamics of Malaysia’s Bilateral Export Post Covid-19: A Gravity Model Analysis," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 55(1), pages 51-69.
    4. Lili Yan Ing & Yessi Vadila, 2022. "COVID-19: Impacts of Indonesia's Trade," Working Papers DP-2021-48, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    5. Adrian Tudor Tudorache & Luminița Nicolescu, 2023. "Insights about the Effects of COVID-19 on International Trade during the Main Pandemic Years in Romania and Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, May.
    6. Mariusz Zieliński, 2022. "The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Labor Markets of the Visegrad Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-20, June.
    7. William MESIET, 2023. "The nexus of foreign trade and economic growth in Tanzania. Examining the influence of COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence from vector error correction model," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(636), A), pages 273-296, Autumn.
    8. Josephine Wuri & Tri Widodo & Amirullah Setya Hardi, 2022. "Global Value Chains Participation during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Dynamic Panel Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-16, May.
    9. Oleksandr SHNYRKOV & Oleksii CHUGAIEV, 2020. "Resilience Of The Eu Exports To Ukraine Under The Covid-19 Pandemic," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 7, pages 80-100.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; export performance; supply chain; lockdown policies; ARDL method JEL Classification : C22 ; F14 ; I18;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ist:iujepr:v:11:y:2024:i:2:p:263-277. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ertugrul YASAR (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifisttr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.