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OR Practice–Data Analytics for Optimal Detection of Metastatic Prostate Cancer

Author

Listed:
  • Selin Merdan

    (Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109)

  • Christine L. Barnett

    (Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109)

  • Brian T. Denton

    (Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109)

  • James E. Montie

    (Department of Urology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109; Michigan Urological Surgery Improvement Collaborative, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109)

  • David C. Miller

    (Department of Urology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109; Michigan Urological Surgery Improvement Collaborative, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109)

Abstract

We used data-analytics approaches to develop, calibrate, and validate predictive models, to help urologists in a large statewide collaborative make prostate cancer staging decisions on the basis of individual patient risk factors. The models were validated using statistical methods based on bootstrapping and evaluation on out-of-sample data. These models were used to design guidelines that optimally weigh the benefits and harms of radiological imaging for the detection of metastatic prostate cancer. The Michigan Urological Surgery Improvement Collaborative, a statewide medical collaborative, implemented these guidelines, which were predicted to reduce unnecessary imaging by more than 40% and limit the percentage of patients with missed metastatic disease to be less than 1%. The effects of the guidelines were measured after implementation to confirm their impact on reducing unnecessary imaging across the state of Michigan.

Suggested Citation

  • Selin Merdan & Christine L. Barnett & Brian T. Denton & James E. Montie & David C. Miller, 2021. "OR Practice–Data Analytics for Optimal Detection of Metastatic Prostate Cancer," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 774-794, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:69:y:2021:i:3:p:774-794
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.2020.2020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrzej S. Kosinski & Huiman X. Barnhart, 2003. "Accounting for Nonignorable Verification Bias in Assessment of Diagnostic Tests," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 163-171, March.
    2. Michael E. Miller & Carl D. Langefeld & William M. Tierney & Siu L. Hui & Clement J. McDonald, 1993. "Validation of Probabilistic Predictions," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 13(1), pages 49-57, February.
    3. Maher Maalouf & Theodore Trafalis & Indra Adrianto, 2011. "Kernel logistic regression using truncated Newton method," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 415-428, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tian, Xuecheng & Yan, Ran & Liu, Yannick & Wang, Shuaian, 2023. "A smart predict-then-optimize method for targeted and cost-effective maritime transportation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 32-52.

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