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Evaluating Improvements in Electric Utility Reliability at British Columbia Hydro

Author

Listed:
  • Ralph L. Keeney

    (University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California)

  • Timothy L. McDaniels

    (University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada)

  • Cary Swoveland

    (Quantalytics Inc.)

Abstract

This paper employs multiattribute value assessment and risk analysis to evaluate the benefits of four alternatives to improve electrical system reliability in British Columbia. A multiattribute value model is constructed as a cost-equivalent function, based on value judgments provided by a group of senior system planners and two senior vice presidents from BC Hydro. Using data drawn from the utility's service records and probabilities elicited from the utility's technical specialists, a risk analysis is developed to estimate the magnitude and duration of outages associated with the various alternatives. The value model and probabilities are combined to estimate the expected equivalent costs of outages over time, for the four alternatives. The influence of this analysis on BC Hydro's transmission system planning is also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ralph L. Keeney & Timothy L. McDaniels & Cary Swoveland, 1995. "Evaluating Improvements in Electric Utility Reliability at British Columbia Hydro," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 43(6), pages 933-947, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:43:y:1995:i:6:p:933-947
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.43.6.933
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Løken, Espen & Botterud, Audun & Holen, Arne T., 2009. "Use of the equivalent attribute technique in multi-criteria planning of local energy systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 197(3), pages 1075-1083, September.
    2. Ralph L. Keeney & Robin S. Gregory, 2005. "Selecting Attributes to Measure the Achievement of Objectives," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(1), pages 1-11, February.
    3. Robin L. Dillon & M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell & Seth D. Guikema, 2003. "Programmatic Risk Analysis for Critical Engineering Systems Under Tight Resource Constraints," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 51(3), pages 354-370, June.
    4. Donald L. Keefer & Craig W. Kirkwood & James L. Corner, 2004. "Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications, 1990–2001," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 4-22, March.
    5. Ananda, Jayanath & Herath, Gamini, 2009. "A critical review of multi-criteria decision making methods with special reference to forest management and planning," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2535-2548, August.
    6. Keeney, Ralph L., 1996. "Value-focused thinking: Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 537-549, August.
    7. Sahotra Sarkar & James S Dyer & Chris Margules & Michael Ciarleglio & Neville Kemp & Grace Wong & Daniel Juhn & Jatna Supriatna, 2017. "Developing an objectives hierarchy for multicriteria decisions on land use options, with a case study of biodiversity conservation and forestry production from Papua, Indonesia," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 44(3), pages 464-485, May.

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