IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/oropre/v14y1966i5p759-790.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Combat Models and Historical Data: The U.S. Civil War

Author

Listed:
  • Herbert K. Weiss

    (Palos Verdes Estates, California)

Abstract

Doubt has recently been cast on the applicability of mathematical models in general and Lanchester-type equations in particular to real combat. A comparatively small amount of effort has been spent in the past in testing theory against data, and so the general validity of such modeling largely remains to be demonstrated. In this paper, combat data on the U.S. Civil War is examined to determine the extent to which it can be explained by-simple mathematical relations, and some support, as well as problems, for such modeling is developed. A model for probability of winning is developed, depending solely on the ability of each force to continue to fight after sustaining specified fractional losses. Distributions of parameters describing battles, force ratios, and loss ratios are derived. Limited applicability of Lanchester-type equations is indicated. It is concluded that although these hundred-year-old battles may have limited application to future combat, the possibilities of deriving improved combat models by analyzing real life data are essentially unlimited, and that fact differs sufficiently from theory to make it unlikely that pure conjecture will hit upon the proper form for a combat model structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Herbert K. Weiss, 1966. "Combat Models and Historical Data: The U.S. Civil War," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 14(5), pages 759-790, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:14:y:1966:i:5:p:759-790
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.14.5.759
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.14.5.759
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/opre.14.5.759?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Mark Koyama & Youhong Lin & Tuan-Hwee Sng, 2023. "The Fractured-Land Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 138(2), pages 1173-1231.
    2. Anderton,Charles H. & Carter,John R., 2009. "Principles of Conflict Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521875578, December.
    3. Kendall D. Moll & Gregory M. Luebbert, 1980. "Arms Race and Military Expenditure Models," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 24(1), pages 153-185, March.
    4. Dean S. Hartley & Robert L. Helmbold, 1995. "Validating Lanchester's square law and other attrition models," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(4), pages 609-633, June.
    5. Pettit, L. I. & Wiper, M. P. & Young, K. D. S., 2003. "Bayesian inference for some Lanchester combat laws," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 152-165, July.
    6. Jerome Bracken, 1995. "Lanchester models of the ardennes campaign," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(4), pages 559-577, June.
    7. Jack Hirshleifer, 2000. "The Macrotechnology of Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(6), pages 773-792, December.
    8. Hausken, Kjell & Moxnes, John F., 2002. "Stochastic conditional and unconditional warfare," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 61-87, July.
    9. Chad W. Seagren & Donald P. Gaver & Patricia A. Jacobs, 2019. "A stochastic air combat logistics decision model for Blue versus Red opposition," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 66(8), pages 663-674, December.
    10. Ian R. Johnson & Niall J. MacKay, 2011. "Lanchester models and the battle of Britain," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(3), pages 210-222, April.
    11. M.P. Wiper & L.I. Pettit & K.D.S. Young, 2000. "Bayesian inference for a Lanchester type combat model," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(7), pages 541-558, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:14:y:1966:i:5:p:759-790. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.