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Constructing a Complex Judgmental Model: An Index of Trauma Severity


  • Dennis G. Fryback

    (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

  • Ralph L. Keeney

    (Woodward-Clyde Consultants, Walnut Creek, California)


The modeling of many complex phenomena necessarily relies on numerous interrelated judgments. This paper illustrates an application of the concepts of multiattribute utility assessment, based on the professional judgments of one physician, to scale the trauma severity of injuries to individuals. Special attention is given to problems not usually present or reported in applications of the assessment techniques. These include nonmonotonic functions, strong dependencies among different measures, and the state dependence of trauma severity on age and existing diseases of the individual. The manner in which these complexities were addressed is indicated.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis G. Fryback & Ralph L. Keeney, 1983. "Constructing a Complex Judgmental Model: An Index of Trauma Severity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(8), pages 869-883, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:29:y:1983:i:8:p:869-883

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ian I. Mitroff, 1972. "The Myth of Objectivity OR Why Science Needs a New Psychology of Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(10), pages 613-618, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bosworth, K & Gingiss, P.M & Potthoff, S & Roberts-Gray, C, 1999. "A Bayesian model to predict the success of the implementation of health and education innovations in school-centered programs," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-11.
    2. Zanakis, Stelios H. & Mandakovic, Tomislav & Gupta, Sushil K. & Sahay, Sundeep & Hong, Sungwan, 1995. "A review of program evaluation and fund allocation methods within the service and government sectors," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 59-79, March.


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