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Forecasting Political Risk


  • D. W. Bunn

    (Oxford University)

  • M. M. Mustafaoglu

    (Getty Oil Company, Los Angeles)


An applied procedure is preserved in this paper which has been used to forecast some of the political risks ars oil company faces from investment in an overseas developing country, e.g., expropriation, taxation, price and production controls. The procedure makes use of a panel of experts, but requires, their estimates to be formulated in a way that takes explicit account of the precursive conditions for each of the adverse actions that the host country could take. A Bayesian method is used to derive the composite probabilities, for the political risk events under consideration and a Cross-Impact Analysis then provides s means of overall scenario generation.

Suggested Citation

  • D. W. Bunn & M. M. Mustafaoglu, 1978. "Forecasting Political Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(15), pages 1557-1567, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:24:y:1978:i:15:p:1557-1567

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    Cited by:

    1. Abada, Ibrahim & Massol, Olivier, 2011. "Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market.: Some model-based insights," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4077-4088, July.
    2. Constant Fouopi djiogap, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment and Macro Economic Performances in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC)," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2563-2574.


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