IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/orisre/v7y1996i2p233-247.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Overcoming Ineffective Mental Representations in Base-Rate Problems

Author

Listed:
  • Marie Christine Roy

    (Faculté des Sciences de L'Administration, Université Laval, Québec, Canada G1K 7P4)

  • F. Javier Lerch

    (Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213)

Abstract

Many biases have been observed in probabilistic reasoning, hindering the ability to follow normative rules in decision-making contexts involving uncertainty. One systematic error people make is to neglect base rates in situations where prior beliefs in a hypothesis should be taken into account when new evidence is obtained. Incomplete explanations for the phenomenon have impeded the development of effective debiasing procedures or tools to support decision making in this area. In this research, we show that the main reason behind these judgment errors is the causal representation induced by the problem context. In two experiments we demonstrate that people often possess the appropriate decision rules but are unable to apply them correctly because they have an ineffective causal mental representation. We also show how this mental representation may be modified when a graph is used instead of a problem narrative. This new understanding should contribute to the design of better decision aids to overcome this bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Marie Christine Roy & F. Javier Lerch, 1996. "Overcoming Ineffective Mental Representations in Base-Rate Problems," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 7(2), pages 233-247, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orisre:v:7:y:1996:i:2:p:233-247
    DOI: 10.1287/isre.7.2.233
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/isre.7.2.233
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/isre.7.2.233?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_023, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    2. Yigitbasioglu, Ogan M. & Velcu, Oana, 2012. "A review of dashboards in performance management: Implications for design and research," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 41-59.
    3. Klein, Barbara D., 2001. "Detecting errors in data: clarification of the impact of base rate expectations and incentives," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 391-404, October.
    4. Philipp N. Herrmann & Dennis O. Kundisch & Mohammad S. Rahman, 2015. "Beating Irrationality: Does Delegating to IT Alleviate the Sunk Cost Effect?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(4), pages 831-850, April.
    5. Kai H. Lim & Izak Benbasat & Lawrence M. Ward, 2000. "The Role of Multimedia in Changing First Impression Bias," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 11(2), pages 115-136, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:orisre:v:7:y:1996:i:2:p:233-247. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.