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Swinging on the Branch of a Tree: Project Selection Applications

Author

Listed:
  • Sidney W. Hess

    (Management Department, College of Business and Administration, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

Abstract

Selecting research and development projects is always difficult because data for assessment are seldom available. ICI Americas used simple decision trees successfully to screen new product ideas and decide on a major effort in new process research. The new process research model incorporated only 10 variables, making estimation feasible; a visual sensitivity analysis gave management confidence in the model conclusions. The screening model incorporated qualitative selection criteria (for example, quick development, low risk, patentable, low capital, high sales) into a single quantitative expression of expected net present value. ICI Americas used it to select projects from 53 new product ideas. These examples illustrate the value of a logical, simple model even when data are sparse.

Suggested Citation

  • Sidney W. Hess, 1993. "Swinging on the Branch of a Tree: Project Selection Applications," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 23(6), pages 5-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:23:y:1993:i:6:p:5-12
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.23.6.5
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dennis Gensch, 2001. "A Marketing-Decision-Support Model for Evaluating and Selecting Concepts for New Products," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 31(3_supplem), pages 166-183, June.
    2. Donald L. Keefer & Craig W. Kirkwood & James L. Corner, 2004. "Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications, 1990–2001," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 4-22, March.
    3. A Morton & D Bird & A Jones & M White, 2011. "Decision conferencing for science prioritisation in the UK public sector: a dual case study," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(1), pages 50-59, January.
    4. Boguslaw Nowak & Maciej Nowak & Tadeusz Trzaskalik, 2011. "Multicriteria decision aiding in project planning using dynamic programming and simulation," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp2202011, Département des sciences administratives, UQO.
    5. Saurabh Bansal & Genaro J. Gutierrez, 2020. "Estimating Uncertainties Using Judgmental Forecasts with Expert Heterogeneity," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 363-380, March.
    6. Fernández Carazo, Ana & Gómez Núñez, Trinidad & Guerrero Casas, Flor M. & Caballero Fernández, Rafael, 2008. "Evaluación y clasificación de las técnicas utilizadas por las organizaciones, en las últimas décadas, para seleccionar proyectos = Evaluation and classification of the techniques used by organizations," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 5(1), pages 67-115, June.

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