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From the Editor ---Median Aggregation, Scoring Rules, Expert Forecasts, Choices with Binary Attributes, Portfolio with Dependent Projects, and Information Security

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  • Rakesh K. Sarin

    () (Anderson School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095-1481)

Abstract

The December issue of Decision Analysis contains six articles. Our first three papers aim to improve the quality of probability judgments. Hora, Fransen, Hawkins, and Susel argue that medium aggregation of distribution functions works better than mean aggregation of probabilities. Merkle and Steyvers examine the relative attractiveness of different scorings rules. Karvetski, Olson, Mandel, and Twardy propose a coherence weighted probability aggregation rule for combining expert forecasts. Our fourth paper by Katsikopoulos presents a theory that explains why simple heuristics often perform well in multiattribute choices with binary attributes. Bhattacharjya, Eidsvik, and Mukerji provide closed-form results for value of information in the context of portfolio selection with dependent projects. Finally, Gao, Zhong, and Mei use game theory to analyze information security. All of the papers have a common purpose of improving decisions in private and public domains.

Suggested Citation

  • Rakesh K. Sarin, 2013. "From the Editor ---Median Aggregation, Scoring Rules, Expert Forecasts, Choices with Binary Attributes, Portfolio with Dependent Projects, and Information Security," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 277-278, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:10:y:2013:i:4:p:277-278
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.2013.0284
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/deca.2013.0284
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark J. Schervish & Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane, 2009. "Proper Scoring Rules, Dominated Forecasts, and Coherence," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 202-221, December.
    2. Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Jr. & Robert L. Winkler, 2007. "Probability Elicitation, Scoring Rules, and Competition Among Forecasters," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(11), pages 1745-1755, November.
    3. Manel Baucells & Juan A. Carrasco & Robin M. Hogarth, 2008. "Cumulative Dominance and Heuristic Performance in Binary Multiattribute Choice," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(5), pages 1289-1304, October.
    4. Joel B. Predd & Daniel N. Osherson & Sanjeev R. Kulkarni & H. Vincent Poor, 2008. "Aggregating Probabilistic Forecasts from Incoherent and Abstaining Experts," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 177-189, December.
    5. Markus Glaser & Thomas Langer & Martin Weber, 2007. "On the Trend Recognition and Forecasting Ability of Professional Traders," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(4), pages 176-193, December.
    6. Kun Zan & J. Eric Bickel, 2013. "Components of Portfolio Value of Information," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(2), pages 171-185, June.
    7. Guanchun Wang & Sanjeev R. Kulkarni & H. Vincent Poor & Daniel N. Osherson, 2011. "Aggregating Large Sets of Probabilistic Forecasts by Weighted Coherent Adjustment," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(2), pages 128-144, June.
    8. Fred Collopy & J. Scott Armstrong, 1992. "Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(10), pages 1394-1414, October.
    9. J. Eric Bickel, 2010. "Scoring Rules and Decision Analysis Education," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(4), pages 346-357, December.
    10. Robin M. Hogarth & Natalia Karelaia, 2005. "Simple Models for Multiattribute Choice with Many Alternatives: When It Does and Does Not Pay to Face Trade-offs with Binary Attributes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(12), pages 1860-1872, December.
    11. Huseyin Cavusoglu & Young Kwark & Bin Mai & Srinivasan Raghunathan, 2013. "Passenger Profiling and Screening for Aviation Security in the Presence of Strategic Attackers," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 63-81, March.
    12. D. Marc Kilgour & Yigal Gerchak, 2004. "Elicitation of Probabilities Using Competitive Scoring Rules," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(2), pages 108-113, June.
    13. Robert L. Winkler & Robert T. Clemen, 2004. "Multiple Experts vs. Multiple Methods: Combining Correlation Assessments," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(3), pages 167-176, September.
    14. J. Eric Bickel, 2007. "Some Comparisons among Quadratic, Spherical, and Logarithmic Scoring Rules," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(2), pages 49-65, June.
    15. Robert F. Nau, 1985. "Should Scoring Rules be "Effective"?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(5), pages 527-535, May.
    16. Robert L. Winkler, 1994. "Evaluating Probabilities: Asymmetric Scoring Rules," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(11), pages 1395-1405, November.
    17. Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Robert L. Winkler, 2013. "Is It Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(7), pages 1594-1611, July.
    18. Huseyin Cavusoglu & Srinivasan Raghunathan, 2004. "Configuration of Detection Software: A Comparison of Decision and Game Theory Approaches," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(3), pages 131-148, September.
    19. David J. Johnstone & Victor Richmond R. Jose & Robert L. Winkler, 2011. "Tailored Scoring Rules for Probabilities," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(4), pages 256-268, December.
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