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Behaviour validity of a simulation model for sustainable development

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  • Hassan Qudrat-Ullah

Abstract

System dynamics simulation models are well suited for the analysis of problems related to sustainable development. This is due to their ability to take an integrative view of social, economic and environmental factors and link the observable patterns to microlevel structure and decision process. Despite their capabilities, the acceptance of system dynamics simulation models by the broader community of decision makers is limited. We argue that reluctance by the system dynamics modellers to expose their models to formal behaviour validity procedures is the main problem. This leads to an outline of formal behaviour validity procedures available but less explored in system dynamics modelling 'repertoire'. An illustration of the multiple tests and the Theil inequality statistics for behaviour validity of a system dynamics simulation model for sustainable energy policy development follows. Finally, various conclusions on the increased appeal for simulation models for sustainable development initiatives are also presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Hassan Qudrat-Ullah, 2008. "Behaviour validity of a simulation model for sustainable development," International Journal of Management and Decision Making, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(2), pages 129-140.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijmdma:v:9:y:2008:i:2:p:129-140
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    Cited by:

    1. Yinhe Bu & Xingping Zhang, 2021. "On the Way to Integrate Increasing Shares of Variable Renewables in China: Experience from Flexibility Modification and Deep Peak Regulation Ancillary Service Market Based on MILP-UC Programming," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-22, February.
    2. Wang, Wenya & Fan, L.W. & Zhou, P., 2022. "Evolution of global fossil fuel trade dependencies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    3. Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan, 2017. "How to enhance the future use of energy policy simulation models through ex post validation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 58-66.
    4. Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan, 2022. "A review and analysis of renewable energy policies and CO2 emissions of Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    5. Felder, F.A. & Kumar, P., 2021. "A review of existing deep decarbonization models and their potential in policymaking," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

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