Scenarios for Educational Administration to Reduce Inequality in Primary Schools in Special Areas of the Southern Border Provinces under the Office of the Basic Education Commission in the Next Decade (2025 - 2035)

This research is a futures study aiming to investigate and create management scenarios for reducing educational inequality in primary schools in special areas of the southern border provinces under the Office of the Basic Education Commission in the next decade (2025-2035). It is an ethnographic futures research using the Ethnographic Delphi Futures Research (EDFR) method. The study examined the opinions of 22 experts selected through purposive sampling. The informants included senior administrators, educational administrators, and educational academics. The research instruments were interviews and questionnaires. Data analysis involved calculating the median, mode, and interquartile range. The results with high consensus were then used to analyze the relationships between factors using cross-impact analysis to construct future scenarios. The research found that the future vision for managing educational inequality in primary schools in special areas of the southern border provinces in the next decade consists of 7 aspects as follows- (1) policy and management, (2) curriculum and learning processes, (3) teachers and educational personnel, (4) community cooperation and networks, (5) educational opportunities and equity, (6) technology and innovation, and (7) potential impacts. Important factors include area-specific policies, teacher and administrator competencies, technology use, and community participation. The cross-analysis of impacts to create scenarios from the most desirable scenario to the least desirable scenario resulted in 4 scenarios- Scenario 1 "Light of Equality": sustainable multicultural education; Scenario 2 "Digital Leap Forward": smart technology for equal opportunities; Scenario 3 "Hope on a Limited Path": equity still awaiting fulfillment; and Scenario 4 "Shadow of Inequality": crisis of faith and educational decline. These scenarios serve as both a compass and a policy warning system for reducing educational inequality in primary schools in special areas of the southern border provinces. Affiliated with the Office of the Basic Education Commission in the next decade.