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Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation

Author

Listed:
  • José I. Barredo

    () (European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, TP 261, I-21020 Ispra, Italy)

  • Guy Engelen

    () (Environmental Modeling Unit, VITO-Flemish Institute for Technological Research, B-2400 Mol, Belgium)

Abstract

It is generally accepted that flood risk has been increasing in Europe in the last decades. Accordingly, it becomes a priority to better understand its drivers and mechanisms. Flood risk is evaluated on the basis of three factors: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. If one of these factors increases, then so does the risk. Land use change models used for ex-ante assessment of spatial trends provide planners with powerful tools for territorial decision making. However, until recently this type of model has been largely neglected in strategic planning for flood risk mitigation. Thus, ex-ante assessment of flood risk is an innovative application of land use change models. The aim of this paper is to propose a flood risk mitigation approach using exposure scenarios. The methodology is applied in the Pordenone province in northern Italy. In the past 50 years Pordenone has suffered several heavy floods, the disastrous consequences of which demonstrated the vulnerability of the area. Results of this study confirm that the main driving force of increased flood risk is found in new urban developments in flood-prone areas.

Suggested Citation

  • José I. Barredo & Guy Engelen, 2010. "Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(5), pages 1-18, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:2:y:2010:i:5:p:1327-1344:d:8302
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ugo Bardi & Alessandro Lavacchi, 2009. "A Simple Interpretation of Hubbert’s Model of Resource Exploitation," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(3), pages 1-16, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gowhar Meraj & Shakil Romshoo & A. Yousuf & Sadaff Altaf & Farrukh Altaf, 2015. "Assessing the influence of watershed characteristics on the flood vulnerability of Jhelum basin in Kashmir Himalaya," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(1), pages 153-175, May.
    2. Mattia Amadio & Jaroslav Mysiak & Lorenzo Carrera & Elco Koks, 2016. "Improving flood damage assessment models in Italy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 2075-2088, July.
    3. Heli Lu & Guifang Liu, 2015. "Opportunity Costs of Carbon Emissions Stemming from Changes in Land Use," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(4), pages 1-18, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    land use modeling; flood risk; flood hazard; urban growth;

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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