IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i9p4138-d1648615.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ecological Value Measurement Assessment and Forecasting in Chengdu City, Sichuan Province, China

Author

Listed:
  • Ran Li

    (College of Geography and Planning, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)

  • Wende Chen

    (College of Geography and Planning, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)

  • Kening Xu

    (College of Geography and Planning, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)

  • Xuan Qi

    (College of Geography and Planning, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)

  • Jiali Zhou

    (College of Geography and Planning, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)

Abstract

This study employs an accounting approach to quantitatively assess Chengdu’s ecological value, focusing on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries, climate regulation, water conservation, water quality purification, and air quality improvement. The value of each indicator is calculated and visualized using ArcGIS 10.8, with predictions made for four future time intervals. The analysis reveals the spatial distribution patterns of ecological value across Chengdu. The results indicate the following: (1) From 2015 to 2019, Chengdu’s ecological value indicators demonstrated a positive growth trend, with notable increases in recreation services (CNY 178.5 billion), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fisheries (CNY 32.88 billion), and water conservation (CNY 9.26 billion). Values exhibited a general decrease from the city center outward. (2) Water quality purification, air quality improvement, and pest control values exhibited slight declines in 2015, 2017, and 2019 compared to 2015. (3) Ecological values demonstrate spatial diversity, with lower values in central areas for categories such as soil conservation and a “high-low-high” pattern for water conservation. Recreation services exhibit a “high in the center, low around the edges” pattern. (4) The gray prediction model forecasts that by 2027, the values for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, water conservation, and soil conservation will double relative to 2015. Climate regulation and air quality improvement values are predicted to triple, while water quality purification exhibits minimal change. Pest control is expected to decline to 67% of its 2015 value, while the value of recreation services will increase to 12 times its 2015 value. The results of this study reveal the evolutionary characteristics of the ecological value volume index in Chengdu, fill a gap in the field of ecological value volume measurement and prediction in the region, and provide scientific support for understanding the evolutionary trajectory of Chengdu’s ecological environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Ran Li & Wende Chen & Kening Xu & Xuan Qi & Jiali Zhou, 2025. "Ecological Value Measurement Assessment and Forecasting in Chengdu City, Sichuan Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-20, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:9:p:4138-:d:1648615
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/9/4138/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/9/4138/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wunder, Sven, 2015. "Revisiting the concept of payments for environmental services," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 234-243.
    2. Daowei Zhang & Anne Stenger, 2015. "Value and valuation of forest ecosystem services," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 129-140, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aryal, Kishor & Maraseni, Tek & Apan, Armando, 2023. "Examining policy−institution−program (PIP) responses against the drivers of ecosystem dynamics. A chronological review (1960–2020) from Nepal," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Qian Zhou & Feng Gui & Benxuan Zhao & Jingyi Liu & Huiwen Cai & Kaida Xu & Sheng Zhao, 2024. "Examining the Social Costs of Carbon Emissions and the Ecosystem Service Value in Island Ecosystems: An Analysis of the Zhoushan Archipelago," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-19, January.
    3. Ouellet, F. & Mundler, P. & Dupras, J. & Ruiz, J., 2020. "“Community developed and farmer delivered.” An analysis of the spatial and relational proximities of the Alternative Land Use Services program in Ontario," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    4. Rodríguez-Ortega, T. & Olaizola, A.M. & Bernués, A., 2018. "A novel management-based system of payments for ecosystem services for targeted agri-environmental policy," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 34(PA), pages 74-84.
    5. Jung, Suhyun & Hajjar, Reem, 2023. "The livelihood impacts of transnational aid for climate change mitigation: Evidence from Ghana," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    6. Desbureaux, Sébastien & Brimont, Laura, 2015. "Between economic loss and social identity: The multi-dimensional cost of avoiding deforestation in Eastern Madagascar," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 10-20.
    7. Shinichi Kitano, 2021. "Estimation of Determinants of Farmland Abandonment and Its Data Problems," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-17, June.
    8. Trædal, Leif Tore & Vedeld, Pål Olav & Pétursson, Jón Geir, 2016. "Analyzing the transformations of forest PES in Vietnam: Implications for REDD+," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 109-117.
    9. Fangfang Xun & Yecui Hu & Ling Lv & Jinhui Tong, 2017. "Farmers’ Awareness of Ecosystem Services and the Associated Policy Implications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-13, September.
    10. Lili Zhang & Baoqing Hu & Ze Zhang & Gaodou Liang & Simin Huang, 2023. "Comprehensive Evaluation of Ecological-Economic Value of Guangxi Based on Land Consolidation," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-25, March.
    11. Xinmin Zhang & Hualin Xie & Jiaying Shi & Tiangui Lv & Caihua Zhou & Wangda Liu, 2020. "Assessing Changes in Ecosystem Service Values in Response to Land Cover Dynamics in Jiangxi Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-15, April.
    12. Jaung, Wanggi & Putzel, Louis & Bull, Gary Q. & Kozak, Robert & Markum,, 2016. "Certification of forest watershed services: A Q methodology analysis of opportunities and challenges in Lombok, Indonesia," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 22(PA), pages 51-59.
    13. Xuanmiao Peng & Xiaoai Dai & Ryan Shi & Yujian Zheng & Xinyue Liu & Yuhe Xiao & Weile Li & Yang Zhang & Jue Wang & Huan Huang, 2024. "Investigating the Effects of Mining on Ecosystem Services in Panzhihua City: A Multi-Scenario Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-25, June.
    14. Jingheng Wang & Meichen Fu & Xiangxue Han & Yuting Wu & Hongyan Wen, 2025. "Research on Human Needs and the Valorization of Supply–Need Relationships in Ecosystem Services—A Case Study of the Southwest Karst Region," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-28, March.
    15. Josset, Clement & Shanafelt, David W. & Abildtrup, Jens & Stenger, Anne, 2023. "Probabilistic typology of private forest owners: A tool to target the development of new market for ecosystem services," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    16. Pham, Thu Thuy & Loft, Lasse & Bennett, Karen & Phuong, Vu Tan & Dung, Le Ngoc & Brunner, Jake, 2015. "Monitoring and evaluation of Payment for Forest Environmental Services in Vietnam: From myth to reality," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 220-229.
    17. Mangubhai, Sangeeta & Sykes, Helen & Manley, Marita & Vukikomoala, Kiji & Beattie, Madeline, 2020. "Contributions of tourism-based Marine Conservation Agreements to natural resource management in Fiji," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    18. Lin, Yongsheng & Dong, Zhanfeng & Zhang, Wei & Zhang, Hongyu, 2020. "Estimating inter-regional payments for ecosystem services: Taking China’s Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as an example," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    19. Brathwaite, Angelique & Pascal, Nicolas & Clua, Eric, 2021. "When are payment for ecosystems services suitable for coral reef derived coastal protection?: A review of scientific requirements," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    20. Anne Stenger & Patrice Harou, 2015. "Special issue on forest investments profitability," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 125-128, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:9:p:4138-:d:1648615. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.