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Enhancing Sustainable Fisheries Trade and Food Security Through CPEC in Pakistan

Author

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  • Ali Mumtaz Dahri

    (College of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China)

  • Mu Yongtong

    (College of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China)

Abstract

Pakistan’s fisheries sector is vital for livelihoods, exports, and food security, yet growth has been constrained by weak infrastructure, limited compliance with sanitary standards, and underinvestment. The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has been promoted as a driver of trade facilitation, but its actual effect on fisheries exports remains unclear. This study analyzes export performance to five leading Asian markets—China, Thailand, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, and Japan—over 2005–2024 using Interrupted Time Series (ITS) and Difference-in-Differences (DiD) models. Results show that overall fisheries exports averaged 1.25 million metric tons (USD 728.7 million) annually, with Asia absorbing 59% of trade. ITS results show that after 2015, there are considerable structural discontinuities in export paths, mainly for China (coefficient = −1.42, p < 0.001) and Thailand (0.95, p = 0.071). DiD analysis confirmed that CPEC had a statistically significant positive impact: the treatment × post-2015 effect was 0.55 ( p = 0.050), showing that exports to China and Thailand grew disproportionately compared with control markets (Malaysia, Indonesia). Importantly, value growth outpaced volume growth, suggesting early evidence of value-chain upgrading. By contrast, Vietnam and Saudi Arabia showed contraction, and Japan remained stable with weak significance (−1.16, p = 0.088). These results provide the first causal evidence that CPEC’s operational phase altered Pakistan’s fisheries export dynamics, though benefits remain uneven. The conclusions indicate the necessity to invest specifically in cold chains, certification, and aquaculture to generate corridor-led benefits in sustainable trade, food security, and long-term sectoral resiliency.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Mumtaz Dahri & Mu Yongtong, 2025. "Enhancing Sustainable Fisheries Trade and Food Security Through CPEC in Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(20), pages 1-18, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:20:p:9121-:d:1771505
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Ruth Banomyong, 2010. "Supply Chain Dynamics in Asia," ADBI Working Papers 184, Asian Development Bank Institute.
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    4. Muhammad Adnan & Baohua Xiao & Shaheen Bibi & Peiwen Xiao & Peng Zhao & Haiyan Wang & Muhammad Ubaid Ali & Xianjin An, 2024. "Known and Unknown Environmental Impacts Related to Climate Changes in Pakistan: An Under-Recognized Risk to Local Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-27, July.
    5. Ruth Banomyong, 2010. "Supply Chain Dynamics in Asia," Trade Working Papers 22879, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
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