Research on the Infrastructure Resilience System and Sustainable Development of Coastal Cities in the Bohai Sea, China: A Multi-Model and Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity Analysis Based on CAS

In recent years, urban risk incidents have become more common. Enhancing infrastructure resilience is not only crucial for adapting to climate change and addressing natural disasters but also serves as a key cornerstone for sustaining urban sustainable development. The research objects for this study are 17 coastal cities in the Bohai Rim region of China. Based on the Complex Adaptive System (CAS) theory, from the multi-dimensional perspective of urban sustainable development, a resilience evaluation index system covering five subsystems, namely transportation, water supply and drainage, energy, environment, and communication, is constructed. Employing panel data from 2013 to 2022, this study develops the entropy weight–TOPSIS model to quantify resilience levels, and applies the obstacle degree model, geographical detector, and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model to analyze influencing factors. The main research results are as follows: (1) The regional infrastructure resilience shows a slow upward trend, but the insufficient synergy among subsystems restricts urban sustainable development; (2) The primary barrier is the drainage and water supply system, and the environmental and communication systems’ notable spatial heterogeneity will result in uneven regional sustainable development; (3) The influence of driving factors such as economic level gradually weakens over time. Based on the above research results, the following paths for resilience improvement and urban sustainable development are proposed: Improve the regional coordination and long-term governance mechanism; Focus on key shortcomings and implement a resilience enhancement plan for water supply and drainage systems; Implement dynamic and precise policy adjustments to stimulate multiple drivers; Enhance smart empowerment and build a digital twin-based collaborative management platform.