Ecological Resilience Assessment and Scenario Simulation Considering Habitat Suitability, Landscape Connectivity, and Landscape Diversity

Quantitative assessment of ecological resilience is crucial for understanding regional ecological security and provides a scientific basis for ecosystem protection and management decisions. Previous studies on ecological resilience evaluation predominantly focused on ecosystem resistance and recovery capacity under external threats. To address this gap, we propose an innovative assessment framework integrating landscape internal structure indicators—habitat suitability (HS), landscape connectivity (SHDI), and landscape diversity (LCI)—into the resilience paradigm. This approach enables the adjustment of landscape patterns, optimization of energy/material flows, and direct enhancement of ecosystem functions to improve regional ecological resilience. Using the ecological barrier area in northern Qinghai as a case study, we employed geographic grid technology to evaluate ecological resilience levels from 2000 to 2020. Combined with geological disaster risk assessment, ecological regionalization was established. The FLUS model was then applied to simulate land use changes under inertia development (ID) and ecological protection (EP) scenarios, projecting future ecological resilience dynamics. Key findings specific to the study area include: (1) In northern Qinghai, grassland degradation was prominent (2000–2020), primarily converting to barren land. (2) Landscape connectivity and diversity declined, leading to a 6% reduction in ecological resilience over twenty years. (3) Based on ecological resilience and geological disaster risk, three ecological management zones were delineated: prevention and protection areas (40.94%), key supervision areas (38.77%), and key ecological restoration areas (20.09%). (4) Compared with 2020, ecological resilience in 2030 decreased by 23.38% under the ID scenario and 14.28% under the EP scenario. The EP scenario effectively mitigated the decline of resilience. This study offers a novel perspective for ecological resilience assessment and supports spatial optimization of land resources to enhance ecosystem sustainability in ecologically vulnerable regions.