Valorization of Sugarcane Bagasse in Thailand: An Economic Analysis of Ethanol and Co-Product Recovery via Organosolv Fractionation

A comprehensive techno-economic assessment was undertaken to determine the viability of bioethanol production from sugarcane bagasse in Thailand through organosolv fractionation, incorporating three distinct catalytic systems: sulfuric acid, formic acid, and sodium methoxide. Rigorous process simulations were executed using Aspen Plus, facilitating the derivation of detailed mass and energy balances, which served as the foundational input for downstream cost modeling. Economic performance metrics, including the total annualized cost and minimum ethanol selling price, were systematically quantified for each scenario. Among the evaluated configurations, the formic acid-catalyzed organosolv system exhibited superior techno-economic attributes, achieving the lowest unit production costs of 1.14 USD/L for ethanol and 1.84 USD/kg for lignin, corresponding to an estimated ethanol selling price of approximately 1.14 USD/L. This favorable outcome was attained with only moderate capital intensity, indicating a well-balanced trade-off between operational efficiency and investment burden. Conversely, the sodium methoxide-based process configuration imposed the highest economic burden, with a TAC of 15.27 million USD/year, culminating in a markedly elevated MESP of 5.49 USD/kg (approximately 4.33 USD/L). The sulfuric acid-driven system demonstrated effective delignification performance. Sensitivity analysis revealed that reagent procurement costs exert the greatest impact on TAC variation, highlighting chemical expenditure as the key economic driver. These findings emphasize the critical role of solvent choice, catalytic performance, and process integration in improving the cost-efficiency of lignocellulosic ethanol production. Among the examined options, the formic acid-based organosolv process stands out as the most economically viable for large-scale implementation within Thailand’s bioeconomy.