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Quantifying China’s Food Self-Sufficiency and Security Transition Based on Flow and Consumption Analyses

Author

Listed:
  • Huanyu Chang

    (Academy of Eco-Civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China
    State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China
    State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Key Laboratory of Water Safety for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100038, China)

  • Yong Zhao

    (State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China)

  • Yongqiang Cao

    (Academy of Eco-Civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China)

  • Rong Liu

    (State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China)

  • Wei Li

    (General Institute of Water Conservancy Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100120, China)

  • He Ren

    (Academy of Eco-Civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China)

  • Zhen Hong

    (Academy of Eco-Civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China)

  • Jiaqi Yao

    (Academy of Eco-Civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China)

Abstract

This study aims to develop and apply an improved flow–consumption statistics (FCS) method to more accurately assess food and grain self-sufficiency in China. By incorporating dynamic food loss and waste estimates, the FCS method enhances accuracy and spatial resolution. Results from 2010 to 2022 show a national decline in food self-sufficiency to 82%, while grain self-sufficiency remains above 90%. Nineteen provinces failed to achieve food self-sufficiency, with notable regional disparities. Northern inland areas outperform southern coastal regions, which rely more on inter-regional transfers. The average national food loss and waste rate reached 22.8%. The FCS method provides a robust tool for policymakers to evaluate food security risks amid shifting socio-economic and environmental conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Huanyu Chang & Yong Zhao & Yongqiang Cao & Rong Liu & Wei Li & He Ren & Zhen Hong & Jiaqi Yao, 2025. "Quantifying China’s Food Self-Sufficiency and Security Transition Based on Flow and Consumption Analyses," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-25, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:13:p:5965-:d:1690141
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