IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i13p5965-d1690141.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantifying China’s Food Self-Sufficiency and Security Transition Based on Flow and Consumption Analyses

Author

Listed:
  • Huanyu Chang

    (Academy of Eco-Civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China
    State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China
    State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Key Laboratory of Water Safety for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100038, China)

  • Yong Zhao

    (State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China)

  • Yongqiang Cao

    (Academy of Eco-Civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China)

  • Rong Liu

    (State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China)

  • Wei Li

    (General Institute of Water Conservancy Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100120, China)

  • He Ren

    (Academy of Eco-Civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China)

  • Zhen Hong

    (Academy of Eco-Civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China)

  • Jiaqi Yao

    (Academy of Eco-Civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China)

Abstract

This study aims to develop and apply an improved flow–consumption statistics (FCS) method to more accurately assess food and grain self-sufficiency in China. By incorporating dynamic food loss and waste estimates, the FCS method enhances accuracy and spatial resolution. Results from 2010 to 2022 show a national decline in food self-sufficiency to 82%, while grain self-sufficiency remains above 90%. Nineteen provinces failed to achieve food self-sufficiency, with notable regional disparities. Northern inland areas outperform southern coastal regions, which rely more on inter-regional transfers. The average national food loss and waste rate reached 22.8%. The FCS method provides a robust tool for policymakers to evaluate food security risks amid shifting socio-economic and environmental conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Huanyu Chang & Yong Zhao & Yongqiang Cao & Rong Liu & Wei Li & He Ren & Zhen Hong & Jiaqi Yao, 2025. "Quantifying China’s Food Self-Sufficiency and Security Transition Based on Flow and Consumption Analyses," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-25, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:13:p:5965-:d:1690141
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/13/5965/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/13/5965/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huaqing Wu & Zhao Zhang & Jialu Xu & Jie Song & Jichong Han & Jing Zhang & Qinghang Mei & Fei Cheng & Huimin Zhuang & Shaokun Li, 2025. "Food consumption away from home had divergent impacts on diet nutrition quality across urban and rural China," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 17(1), pages 41-56, February.
    2. Zhu, Xiaohua & Zhang, Yan & Zhu, Yuanyuan & Li, Yurui & Cui, Jiaxing & Yu, Bohua, 2025. "Multidimensional deconstruction and workable solutions for addressing China's food security issues: From the perspective of sustainable diets," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    3. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zeng, Mingli & Luo, Kang, 2024. "The impact of urbanization on food security in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 1159-1175.
    4. Zhu, Yuanyuan & Wang, Ziwei & Zhu, Xiaohua, 2023. "New reflections on food security and land use strategies based on the evolution of Chinese dietary patterns," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Liu, Yansui & Zhou, Yang, 2021. "Reflections on China's food security and land use policy under rapid urbanization," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    6. Yan Zhang & Xiaoyong Lu, 2022. "A Comprehensive Evaluation of Food Security in China and Its Obstacle Factors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, December.
    7. Gang Lu & Yutian Miao & Xiaojuan Dong & Zhiliang Dong & Haigang An & Xingyu Li, 2025. "Strategies for improving food security under the impact of external grain price fluctuations: evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(8), pages 887-903, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhu, Xiaohua & Zhang, Yan & Zhu, Yuanyuan & Li, Yurui & Cui, Jiaxing & Yu, Bohua, 2025. "Multidimensional deconstruction and workable solutions for addressing China's food security issues: From the perspective of sustainable diets," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    2. Fahmida Laghari & Farhan Ahmed & Babar Ansari & Paulo Jorge Silveira Ferreira, 2025. "Agricultural Land, Sustainable Food and Crop Productivity: An Empirical Analysis on Environmental Sustainability as a Moderator from the Economy of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-41, February.
    3. Zhanjie Feng & Zhenqi Hu & Xi Zhang & Yuhang Zhang & Ruihao Cui & Li Lu, 2023. "Integrated Mining and Reclamation Practices Enhance Sustainable Land Use: A Case Study in Huainan Coalfield, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-15, October.
    4. Xiangyu Dong & Xiangbo Cheng & Shuiling Huang & Xuran Li & Yiru Wang, 2025. "How does the farmland management rights mortgage loan affect food security: Based on the evidence of major grain producing areas in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(4), pages 1-19, April.
    5. Zhifei Ma & Huan Huang & Xiangmin Zhang & Dongxue Qin & Xiaodi Li, 2024. "Can internet use promote farmers to adopt chemical fertilizer reduction and efficiency enhancement technology in China?—an empirical analysis based on endogenous switching probit model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(8), pages 1-23, August.
    6. Wenyuan Hua & Zhihan Chen & Liangguo Luo, 2022. "The Effect of the Major-Grain-Producing-Areas Oriented Policy on Crop Production: Evidence from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-28, August.
    7. Sun, Xueqing & Xiang, Pengcheng & Cong, Kexin, 2023. "Research on early warning and control measures for arable land resource security," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Siyun Chen & Chuhai Zhu & Xiao Ouyang & Yong Han, 2023. "Research on the Supervision and Implementation System of Territorial Space Planning from the Perspective of Resilience," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-15, October.
    9. Xinwen Lin & Angathevar Baskaran & Yajie Zhang, 2023. "Watershed Horizontal Ecological Compensation Policy and Green Ecological City Development: Spatial and Mechanism Assessment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-21, February.
    10. Dang, Yuxuan & Zhao, Zhenting & Kong, Xiangbin & Lei, Ming & Liao, Yubo & Xie, Zhen & Song, Wei, 2023. "Discerning the process of cultivated land governance transition in China since the reform and opening-up-- Based on the multiple streams framework," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Sami, Janesh & Makun, Keshmeer, 2024. "Food inflation and monetary policy in emerging economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    12. Siyuan Huang & Yaoben Lin, 2025. "Research on High-Quality Urbanization Development and Optimization Pathways Based on the Coupling Coordination Perspective of “Population–Land–Economy–Environment”: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province, C," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-22, February.
    13. Zhang, Daojun & Yang, Wanjing & Kang, Dingrong & Zhang, Han, 2023. "Spatial-temporal characteristics and policy implication for non-grain production of cultivated land in Guanzhong Region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    14. Gong, Maogang & Zhong, Yanan & Zhang, Yun & Elahi, Ehsan & Yang, Yuanxi, 2023. "Have the new round of agricultural land system reform improved farmers' agricultural inputs in China?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    15. Zhipeng Wang & Ershen Zhang & Guojun Chen, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Variation and Influencing Factors of Grain Yield in Major Grain-Producing Counties: A Comparative Study of Two Provinces from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-30, September.
    16. Wang, Jiaoe & Tan, Wenwei & Huang, Jie, 2024. "Extending TOD through the interrelationship between transport and land use: A case study of Beijing," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Ruishi Si & Yumeng Yao & Xueqian Zhang & Qian Lu & Noshaba Aziz, 2022. "Exploring the Role of Contiguous Farmland Cultivation and Adoption of No-Tillage Technology in Improving Transferees’ Income Structure: Evidence from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-25, April.
    18. Zhiyuan Zhu & Jiajia Duan & Ruolan Li & Yongzhong Feng, 2022. "Spatial Evolution, Driving Mechanism, and Patch Prediction of Grain-Producing Cultivated Land in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-12, June.
    19. Yuhan Wang & Chenyujing Yang & Yuanyuan Zhang & Yongji Xue, 2023. "Mountainous Areas: Alleviating the Shortage of Cultivated Land Caused by Changing Dietary Structure in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-19, July.
    20. Mina Kovljenić & Bojan Matkovski & Danilo Đokić, 2024. "Competitiveness and Cereal Self-Sufficiency in Western Balkan Countries," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-23, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:13:p:5965-:d:1690141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.