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Optimization Simulation of Land Use in Jiangsu Province Under Multiple Scenarios Based on the PLUS-InVEST Model

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  • Zhuang Tian

    (School of Geomatics Science and Technology, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
    Observation Research Station of Land Ecology and Land Use in the Yangtze River Delta, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210000, China)

  • Ge Shi

    (School of Geomatics Science and Technology, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
    Observation Research Station of Land Ecology and Land Use in the Yangtze River Delta, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210000, China)

  • Jiahang Liu

    (School of Geomatics Science and Technology, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
    Observation Research Station of Land Ecology and Land Use in the Yangtze River Delta, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210000, China)

  • Yutong Wang

    (School of Geomatics Science and Technology, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
    Observation Research Station of Land Ecology and Land Use in the Yangtze River Delta, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210000, China)

  • Chuang Chen

    (College of Electrical Engineering and Control Science, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
    Department of Automation, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China)

  • Difan Yu

    (School of Civil Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China)

  • Yunpeng Zhang

    (School of Geomatics Science and Technology, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China)

Abstract

With the severe challenges resulting from global climate change, the role of land use/land cover (LU/LC) optimization in mitigating carbon emissions and promoting carbon cycle balance has gained increasing attention. This study takes Jiangsu Province as a case study, analyzing the changes in LU/LC from 1995 to 2020 and their impacts on carbon emissions and carbon storage. For Jiangsu Province’s five development scenarios in 2030 (business-as-usual, carbon emission, carbon storage, and carbon neutrality scenarios), objective functions and constraints were constructed. The PLUS model was employed to simulate land use for 2030, predicting carbon storage, economic benefits, and ecological benefits under each scenario and evaluating the impact of each scenario on achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. The findings indicate that (1) from 1995 to 2020 there were great changes in land use types in Jiangsu Province, with an overall downward trend in carbon storage. (2) The simulated land use quantity structure and spatial patterns for 2030 under different scenarios exhibited significant differences. Compared with the Business-as-Usual Scenario, the other four optimized scenarios achieved a better balance between economic and ecological values. (3) The Integrated Scenario realized optimal synergy between farmland protection, ecological expansion, and economic output, representing the best compromise under multiple objectives.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhuang Tian & Ge Shi & Jiahang Liu & Yutong Wang & Chuang Chen & Difan Yu & Yunpeng Zhang, 2025. "Optimization Simulation of Land Use in Jiangsu Province Under Multiple Scenarios Based on the PLUS-InVEST Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-24, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:12:p:5251-:d:1673504
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    References listed on IDEAS

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