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Advancing Solar Power Forecasting: Integrating Boosting Cascade Forest and Multi-Class-Grained Scanning for Enhanced Precision

Author

Listed:
  • Mohamed Khalifa Boutahir

    (STI Laboratory, T-IDMS Faculty of Sciences and Techniques of Errachidia, Moulay Ismail University of Meknès, Errachidia 52000, Morocco)

  • Yousef Farhaoui

    (STI Laboratory, T-IDMS Faculty of Sciences and Techniques of Errachidia, Moulay Ismail University of Meknès, Errachidia 52000, Morocco)

  • Mourade Azrour

    (STI Laboratory, T-IDMS Faculty of Sciences and Techniques of Errachidia, Moulay Ismail University of Meknès, Errachidia 52000, Morocco)

  • Ahmed Sedik

    (Smart Systems Engineering Laboratory, Communications and Networks Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Prince Sultan University, Riyadh 11586, Saudi Arabia
    Department of the Robotics and Intelligent Machines, Faculty of Artificial Intelligence, Kafrelsheikh University, Kafrelsheikh 33511, Egypt)

  • Moustafa M. Nasralla

    (Smart Systems Engineering Laboratory, Communications and Networks Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Prince Sultan University, Riyadh 11586, Saudi Arabia)

Abstract

Accurate solar power generation forecasting is paramount for optimizing renewable energy systems and ensuring sustainability in our evolving energy landscape. This study introduces a pioneering approach that synergistically integrates Boosting Cascade Forest and multi-class-grained scanning techniques to enhance the precision of solar farm power output predictions significantly. While Boosting Cascade Forest excels in capturing intricate, nonlinear variable interactions through ensemble decision tree learning, multi-class-grained scanning reveals fine-grained patterns within time-series data. Evaluation with real-world solar farm data demonstrates exceptional performance, reflected in low error metrics (mean absolute error, 0.0016; root mean square error 0.0036) and an impressive R-squared score of 99.6% on testing data. This research represents the inaugural application of these advanced techniques to solar generation forecasting, highlighting their potential to revolutionize renewable energy integration, streamline maintenance, and reduce costs. Opportunities for further refinement of ensemble models and exploration of probabilistic forecasting methods are also discussed, underscoring the significance of this work in advancing solar forecasting techniques for a sustainable energy future.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Khalifa Boutahir & Yousef Farhaoui & Mourade Azrour & Ahmed Sedik & Moustafa M. Nasralla, 2024. "Advancing Solar Power Forecasting: Integrating Boosting Cascade Forest and Multi-Class-Grained Scanning for Enhanced Precision," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-20, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:17:p:7462-:d:1466471
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hasna Hissou & Said Benkirane & Azidine Guezzaz & Mourade Azrour & Abderrahim Beni-Hssane, 2023. "A Novel Machine Learning Approach for Solar Radiation Estimation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-21, July.
    2. Rodríguez, Fermín & Galarza, Ainhoa & Vasquez, Juan C. & Guerrero, Josep M., 2022. "Using deep learning and meteorological parameters to forecast the photovoltaic generators intra-hour output power interval for smart grid control," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    3. Seyed Mahdi Miraftabzadeh & Cristian Giovanni Colombo & Michela Longo & Federica Foiadelli, 2023. "A Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Power Prediction via Transfer Learning and Deep Neural Networks," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-16, February.
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