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Assessment of Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Indices under Climate Change Scenarios in the South Saskatchewan River Basin, Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Zare

    (Prairie Adaptations Research Collaborative, University of Regina, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada)

  • Shahid Azam

    (Environmental Systems Engineering, University of Regina, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada)

  • David Sauchyn

    (Prairie Adaptations Research Collaborative, University of Regina, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada)

  • Soumik Basu

    (Prairie Adaptations Research Collaborative, University of Regina, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada
    International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA)

Abstract

Climate change has amplified the severity of droughts with potentially adverse impacts on agriculture in western Canada. This study assessed meteorological and agricultural drought in the Southern Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) using an array of drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), the Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI), and the Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI). These indices were evaluated using multiple regional climate model (RCM) projections assuming 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0 °C thresholds of global warming. A modified Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT-M) was used to simulate the soil water content (SWC), actual evapotranspiration (AET), and potential evapotranspiration. The results of a sensitivity analysis using the SUFI-2 method in SWAT-CUP showed that the model performed well with BIAS lower than 10% and NSE and R higher than 0.7, and the range of SWC output closely matched the observed SWC. According to the RCM projections, the annual precipitation increases for all three global temperature thresholds while the annual mean temperature increases at a greater rate than the rise in global mean temperature. The projected PDSI and the SPEI suggest that drought duration and severity will exceed historical values while SPI will remain largely unchanged. Furthermore, severe drought conditions (SMDI < 2.0) are more frequent under the 3.0 °C global temperature scenario. The mean ETDI was historically 0.58 while the projected value is 0.2, 0.1, and −0.2 for the first to third scenarios, respectively. Simulated values, spatial maps, and heat maps of SMDI and ETDI illustrated that Canesm2.CRCM5 projects the driest conditions among all the RCMs. Agricultural drought indices, which incorporate SWC data, show more significant effects than meteorological drought indices. The increasing dryness will potentially impact agricultural crop production, particularly under the third scenario (3 °C) in the SSRB.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Zare & Shahid Azam & David Sauchyn & Soumik Basu, 2023. "Assessment of Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Indices under Climate Change Scenarios in the South Saskatchewan River Basin, Canada," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-26, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:7:p:5907-:d:1110211
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mohammad Zare & Shahid Azam & David Sauchyn, 2022. "A Modified SWAT Model to Simulate Soil Water Content and Soil Temperature in Cold Regions: A Case Study of the South Saskatchewan River Basin in Canada," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-16, August.
    2. Shoma Tanzeeba & Thian Gan, 2012. "Potential impact of climate change on the water availability of South Saskatchewan River Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 355-386, May.
    3. Rengui Jiang & Jiancang Xie & Hailong He & Jungang Luo & Jiwei Zhu, 2015. "Use of four drought indices for evaluating drought characteristics under climate change in Shaanxi, China: 1951–2012," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2885-2903, February.
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    1. Ioannis M. Kourtis & Harris Vangelis & Dimitris Tigkas & Anna Mamara & Ioannis Nalbantis & George Tsakiris & Vassilios A. Tsihrintzis, 2023. "Drought Assessment in Greece Using SPI and ERA5 Climate Reanalysis Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-19, November.

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