The Spatial–Temporal Characteristics and Driving Forces of the Coupled and Coordinated Development between New Urbanization and Rural Revitalization

In the 21st century’s global push for sustainable development, strategies for new urbanization and rural revitalization in China have transitioned from traditional geographic expansion to a focus on high-quality integration across ecological, social, and economic dimensions. Employing advanced methods such as the entropy weight TOPSIS, coupling coordination model, kernel density estimation, Markov chain, and geographic detector, this study comprehensively explores the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of urban–rural integration in China from 2001 to 2022. Key findings reveal increasing coupling coordination degrees in each province, with significant spatial variations. Notably, during the 15th Five-Year Plan, all regions, including eastern, central, and western areas, exhibited low-level coupling coordination. However, a decreasing ladder-like distribution emerged during the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans, forming a development pattern centered on eastern coastal regions and spreading inland. The central regions experienced significant changes in development kernel density, while the national eastern and western regions remained relatively stable. Looking ahead, highly coupled regions are expected to maintain leadership, positively influencing neighboring areas and propelling overall urban–rural development towards sustainable goals. Conversely, low-level coupled regions require deeper reforms for leap-frog development. The core driving forces behind spatiotemporal differences in coupling coordination degrees involve innovation within the environment, government capabilities, openness to the outside world, and population agglomeration. Secondary roles are played by factors like non-agricultural industrialization, per capita GDP, government investment, and market conditions, while education, healthcare, transportation, and natural resource levels act as bridges in spatiotemporal differentiation. Overall, this study provides a concise spatiotemporal interpretation and strategic recommendations for urban–rural sustainable integration development, advancing towards a more harmonious, green, and just future in alignment with the core principles of sustainable development.