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Predicting Potential Habitat Changes of Two Invasive Alien Fish Species with Climate Change at a Regional Scale

Author

Listed:
  • Seungbum Hong

    (National Institute of Ecology, Seocheon 33657, Korea)

  • Inyoung Jang

    (National Institute of Ecology, Seocheon 33657, Korea)

  • Daegeun Kim

    (National Institute of Ecology, Seocheon 33657, Korea)

  • Suhwan Kim

    (National Institute of Ecology, Seocheon 33657, Korea)

  • Hyun Su Park

    (National Institute of Ecology, Seocheon 33657, Korea)

  • Kyungeun Lee

    (National Institute of Ecology, Seocheon 33657, Korea)

Abstract

Developing national-level policies related to climate change induced expansions of invasive species requires predictive modelling at a regional scale level. This study aimed to predict future changes in the habitat distributions of two major invasive alien fish species, Micropterus salmoides and Lepomis macrochirus , in South Korea. An ensemble system with multiple species distribution models was used for the prediction, and gridded water portion data from the linear-structure information on river channels inputted as habitat characteristics of freshwater ecosystem into the models. Bioclimatic variables at 20-year intervals from 2001 to 2100 were generated from predicted temperature and precipitation data under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The overall distribution probabilities of the potential habitats increased with time in both climate change scenarios, and the potential habitats were predicted to expand to upstream areas. Combined with regional ecological value information, such as biodiversity in freshwater ecosystems, these results can be an important basis for deriving regional priority information for managing alien species in climate change. Additionally, the modelling approach is highly applicable to various national-level policies for ecosystem conservation since it is not greatly restricted by spatial scales.

Suggested Citation

  • Seungbum Hong & Inyoung Jang & Daegeun Kim & Suhwan Kim & Hyun Su Park & Kyungeun Lee, 2022. "Predicting Potential Habitat Changes of Two Invasive Alien Fish Species with Climate Change at a Regional Scale," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-12, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:10:p:6093-:d:817607
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luciana L Porfirio & Rebecca M B Harris & Edward C Lefroy & Sonia Hugh & Susan F Gould & Greg Lee & Nathaniel L Bindoff & Brendan Mackey, 2014. "Improving the Use of Species Distribution Models in Conservation Planning and Management under Climate Change," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(11), pages 1-21, November.
    2. Koo, Kyung Ah & Park, Seon Uk & Kong, Woo-Seok & Hong, Seungbum & Jang, Inyoung & Seo, Changwan, 2017. "Potential climate change effects on tree distributions in the Korean Peninsula: Understanding model & climate uncertainties," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 17-27.
    3. Zhonghyun Kim & Taeyong Shim & Young-Min Koo & Dongil Seo & Young-Oh Kim & Soon-Jin Hwang & Jinho Jung, 2020. "Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Freshwater Fish Distribution by Incorporating Water Flow Rate and Quality Variables," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-15, November.
    4. Kärcher, Oskar & Frank, Karin & Walz, Ariane & Markovic, Danijela, 2019. "Scale effects on the performance of niche-based models of freshwater fish distributions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 33-42.
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    Cited by:

    1. Huayong Zhang & Shuang Zheng & Tousheng Huang & Jiangnan Liu & Junjie Yue, 2023. "Estimation of Potential Suitable Habitats for the Relict Plant Euptelea pleiosperma in China via Comparison of Three Niche Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-22, July.

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